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Have We Hit The QE Peak?
In the 6th episode of Generational Arbitrage, Tyler Neville speaks with Michael Howell, Founder of Crossborder Capital. Mike is a leading global macro thinker who watches giant trends in liquidity from global central banks. He is the author of Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity and has a process unlike most fundamental economic analysis.
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Generational Arbitrage is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like this, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.
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Get unparalleled access to the greatest minds in macro at Blockworks’ three day, executive summit in Bretton Woods. August 11 - 13. Apply to attend today.
https://blockworks.co/brettonwoods/arbitrage
---
Generational Arbitrage is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like this, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqTBTED26Ho
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No one knows the behind-the-scenes crypto stories like Courtney Shrem, Charlie’s wife. Listen in for her unique insights on things like: Watching diversity grow in crypto, how she and Charlie started dating, Courtney’s take on the throw up story, how fast she fell for Charlie, sticking by Charlie through prison and beyond, and tips for long-term relationships (if you can travel together and not want to kill each other, you’re on the right track)
-----This episode of Untold Stories is sponsored by Scott Offord, a broker of ASIC mining gear and the creator of CryptoMining . You can find him on twitter @offordscott .
-----This episode of Untold Stories is sponsored by eToro, the smartest crypto trading platform, and one of the largest in the world. Join myself and 11 million other traders and create an account at eToro.com and build your crypto portfolio the smart way.
-----If you enjoyed this conversation, share it with your colleagues & friends, rate, review, and subscribe.This podcast is presented by BlockWorks Group . For exclusive content and events that provide insights into the crypto and blockchain space, visit them at: https://www.blockworksgroup.io
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Darius Dale of 42 Macro once again joins Jack to share his macro view for 2023. Dale argues that, while inflation and growth are falling, inflation is falling so much faster than growth is falling, and economic resilience is rearing its head in many areas. As a result, it may appear that the so-called “soft landing” could be achieved this year. At least that’s what many asset markets that Dale tracks closely are indicating. This environment is conducive to risk assets rallying and volatility abating - at least in the short-term. However, Dale shares his own view that this current period of economic moderation is likely only a “transitory goldilocks” that will give way to a recession that begins in the fourth quarter of 2023. Dale also shares his outlook on China, bonds, and Bitcoin. Filmed on January 12, 2023.
Follow 42 Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/42MacroAlerts
Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/42MacroAware
Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:19 Have The Odds Of A "Soft Landing" Increased?
06:59 Transitory Goldilocks"
13:53 The Fed Is Focused More On Wage Growth & Labor Market Now Than Inflation
20:20 Odds Of The Fed Cutting Rates
27:17 Permissionless Ad
28:17 But Isn't Growth Falling Rapidly?
40:13 Is Inflation Eating Away At Wealth?
44:59 Is Liquidity Turning Up?
53:53 Asset Allocation
01:02:27 "Tons of Upside In China"
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On today’s episode, Neal Berger Founder of Eagle’s View Capital Management joins the show for a discussion on navigating the uncertain year of 2023.
After launching his contrarian macro fund in 2021, and posting some of the best hedge fund returns in 2022 of 163%, Neal describes how 2023 has been a "challenging year" as his fund remains short stocks & bonds. Expecting the bond market sell-off to continue, Neil shares the path ahead for the rest of 2023 & into 2024. To hear all this & more, you’ll have to tune in!
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Follow Eagles View Capital: https://evhedge.com/
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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00:00 Introduction
00:40 2023 Has Been Challenging
06:43 This Bond Market Sell-Off Isn't Over
11:12 Higher Interest Rates Are Negative For Stocks
14:12 Blockworks Research Ad
14:59 The Ocean Of Liquidity Is In Reverse
27:30 Looking Ahead To 2023/2024
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Jack Farley welcomes former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) for a new show devoted to all things central banking. The two analyze the most recent FOMC meeting, after which Fed Chair Powell on January 26, indicated that the strong labor market and high inflation prints were leading the Fed’s FOMC members to contemplate removing monetary accommodation with more speed and vigor than previously anticipated.
Wang and Farley discuss the spike in Fed Funds Futures, quantitative tightening (QT’s) impact on the market, as well as the striking request of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, that the Federal Reserve not raise rates.
Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/
Joseph Wang’s Twitter: @FedGuy12
Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
01:22 Hawkish Or Dovish?
18:32 Balance Sheet: Tapering & Quantitative Tightening
26:50 Plumbing of The Treasury Market
30:43 Are Bank Reserves Cash?
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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the "global wave of liquidity" that has hit markets in recent months. Mark states that China, Japan & the U.S have all contributed to the positive liquidity backdrop which has seen stocks and crypto aggressively rally. We also discuss the recent U.S inflation numbers, what this means for markets & the economy in the coming months. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Today Jack welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that “transitory will die” and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as inflation stays high.
Wang and Goncalves also discuss the housing market, quantitative tightening, yield curve inversions, and their outlook on risk assets.
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Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12
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This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:59 A 2023 Global Macro Outlook
09:33 The Tightening of Financial Conditions
13:37 Forecasting The Fed Terminal Rate Into 2023
20:33 Curve Ad
21:36 A Classic Boom/Bust Cycle?
29:12 Lagarde Is Undoubtedly Hawkish
31:26 Should We Listen To The Fed's Forward Guidance?
36:58 The Cycle of Financial Conditions
47:19 Stocks, Bonds & The Wealth Effect
49:54 2023 Outlook For Risk Asset's
56:37 Analysing The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening
01:03:12 George & Joseph's Final Thoughts & Outlook For 2023
01:12:00 The Outlook For Bonds Throughout 2023
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Live from DAS: Markets 2019
Featuring:
Paul Brodsky, Partner, Pantera Capital
Nathan McCauley, Co-Founder & CEO, Anchorage
#DASMKTS2019
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