Skip to 9:08 to hear my arguments why I am bearish again. - Summary vlog: Changed my mind since last vlog, most likely the rebound from $6000 to $12000 is behind us and it is down again from here. Odds 60% we see $3000 before new bull market, 40% we have a third leg up from here breaching ATH's. Also a word on amount of transactions and value transacted on BTC vs ETH vs BCH: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-bch.html#log Check out recent tweets from coinmetrics for bearisch indicators: https://twitter.com/coinmetrics Google search trends have collapsed much more than price: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2010-01-26%202018-02-26&q=buy%20bitcoin Gov starting to clamp down pretty hard (SEC on ICO's) are so typical to a Bubble POP, not just correction. Also @Davincij15 his opinion that it will likely drop to $3k before continuing to grow, and trololo his opinion that it will take a while before ATH is broken, influence me: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boutqoS0YaE ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL-r0R35Eow

Updated returns, stocks (16%) as well as gold (11%) did well this year, unlike last year where stocks did poorly (-18%) and gold just ok (0%). The surprise is again cash that is again returning 5% this year, which is zero after deducting 5% inflation. Last 10y, deducting also 5% for inflation, stocks still returned 7%, whereas gold only 1%. The trend is still very clear if you look at the long term chart since 1928. A reversal in returns is unlikely given how short and weak this stock market cycle has been. Stocks can return a lot more and typically do if you look at previous cycles, and the inverse is true for gold. Gold held up well still but it can get a lot worse. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOV_zj5QTLM

Thank u so much for all your likes & comments ? Why I do what I do ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DES8X21t1rk

Thought I was only increasing potential reward but not increasing my risk as long as I kept the investment isolated and did not invest more if it would go down. However this would not be a good investment strategy as one always needs to judge an investment based on it's current allocation and risk/reward ratio. Typically, when an investment goes down a lot but fundamentals are still good, risk/reward ratio has gone up a lot and therefore increasing allocation is a must if one aims for optimal returns. I also reasoned since chance is low Tesla will drop to say $100, or go sideways for long, causing margin calls and reducing my equity and amount of shares with every whipsaw, chances are high I will end up with more shares thanks to a margin loan. And in the end, if it tenfolds, that is the only thing that counts. However even if one does not isolate the investment and is open to invest more if it would go down, this is less likely to happen as you are now forced to invest more just to keep your shares, and therefore investing even more so that you also increase your exposure and amount of shares becomes even harder, causing you to more likely fail in doing so thereby lowering your overall returns. Lastly investing with leverage increases volatility and drawdowns, causing higher stress levels impacting personal & family life and even life duration, simply not worth it. There are some situations where margin loans are interesting, for example it allows you to stay invested while putting your cash to work somewhere else. In this case you do not use leverage, and you always make sure that this cash does not go down lower in value than the margin loan outstanding so that in case your stock goes down in value and a margin call happens, you simply send back the cash to your broker to not be margin called. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjkl16oWEgw