Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHRqn4gZlek
Jared Dillian, founder of The Daily Dirtnap and author of “No Worries: How To Live A Stress-Free Financial Life,” returns to Forward Guidance to argue that too many are too excited about the stock market and private equity and that, accordingly, he is short both. Dillian expects the much-anticipated recession that never appeared in 2023 to finally arrive, and he remains bullish the front end of the yield curve. Filmed on December 20, 2023.
Dillian’s latest book: https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/books/no-worries
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Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:31 Jared's Bearish View On Stocks
03:23 Jared's Short On Blackstone
06:55 Higher For Longer Was Just A Narrative All Along
09:07 I Think We'll Get A Recession
12:06 View On Long-Term Government Bonds
15:29 International and Value Stocks
18:06 Very Bearish View On Chinese Stocks
22:05 Bull Case In Argentina
23:09 Value Stocks Vs. Growth Stocks
25:09 Oil
26:51 Stock Market Sentiment
28:20 Indexing and The Awesome Portfolio
36:04 The Risk Of Focusing Too Much On Small Financial Decisions
44:51 Closing Thoughts On Crypto and Gold
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwO6C_aZ68Y
Russell Napier of Orlock Advisors joins Jack Farley to share lessons from his experience as an financial analyst in Hong Kong during the Asian Financial Crisis. Napier notes that during the bull market in Asian equities of the first half of the 1990s, analysts attributed the boom to the high rates of economic growth in much of Asia. However, Napier tells Farley that the true cause of the dramatic bull market was the multitude of pegged exchange rates that did not allow Asian currencies to strengthen as foreign capital flowed in, boosting liquidity conditions.
However, once the tide of foreign capital reversed course, the “Asian miracle” became a nightmare.
Napier is the author of “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-98: Birth of the Age of Debt.” https://www.libraryofmistakes.com/
Library of Mistakes Twitter: @EdinburghLoM
Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
05:20 The Alleged Cause Of The "Asian Miracle"
10:24 The True Structural Forces Behind The Bull Market
15:43 Short-Term Speculative Capital Flows
17:43 Being a Bear During a Boom
20:15 Currency Pegs
23:13 The End Of The Party?
29:36 The Destabilizing Rise Of The Dollar
39:54 Rising Cost of Capital
47:12 The Contagion Spreads
49:25 Hong Kong
52:50 The Birth Of The Age Of Debt
1:00:32 Inflation
1:04:56 Historical Parallels
1:11:08 Will The Fed Be Able To Tame Inflation?
1:14:27 QE & The Commercial Banking System
1:20:35 Earnings Cycle and Liquidity Cycle
1:24:00 Growth-to-Value Rotation
1:27:42 Emerging Markets & Europe
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJg7lkJVdh4
In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest Mike McGlone, the Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. With 20+ years in the industry as a Trader, Analyst & Strategist, Mike offers a unique perspective on the forces driving global markets, with particular expertise on global commodity markets.
As war between Russia & Ukraine continues, we invited Mike back to On The Margin to share his insights into how continued conflict effects wheat, oil, natural gas & agriculture markets throughout 2022. Mike also shares how the S&P 500 is facing a market correction similar to 2008, the political reaction to inflation, how the Fed will be forced to hike rates to curb inflation & how crypto will perform in this environment.
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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.
Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw
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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks
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Timestamps:
00:00・Introduction
00:46・Fed Rate Hikes
04:20・Bitcoin Market Outlook
10:43・Oil Outlook
16:52・Political Pressure Of Rising Gas Prices
23:07・Market Similarities To 2008
27:24・Fireblocks Ad
33:07・Sanctions On Russia
37:55・U.S vs China: Great Power Competition
46:48・Assets To Own In This Environment
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXa07xg7y2A
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "A Chat With The Top Macro Hedge Funds".
After being in London for Blockworks' DAS Summit, Alfonso had the chance to speak with some some macro hedge funds. Alfonso reflects on their contrarian views from the conversations he had with those funds, to share how macro hedge funds are viewing the world in this market condition. To hear that, you'll have to tune in!
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Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Referenced In The Show:
A Chat With The Top Macro Hedge Funds: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/chat-with-macro-hedge-funds#details
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:17 Housing IS The Business Cycle
04:51 Death By A Thousand Cuts Or A Systemic Risk Event?
08:02 Using The Last 10-Year Framework Won't Work
10:57 Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3by0sszHe8
This week in macro: NYDIG rolls out Bitcoin to "hundreds of US banks," Goldman and Citi mull trading desks, and Cathie Wood's ARK ETF dips 30%.
If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Lnx3TAueg4
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This week, as Mark takes some well deserved time off, we combine forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance.
As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_
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Referenced In The Show:
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBK1Ipofuis
Jack welcomes back to Forward Guidance Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting & writer of the pH Report. Hodges argues that lockdowns in China have already plunged the country into a forced recession, and that the European energy crisis has made a recession on the continent a virtual certainty.
Hodges notes that central bankers’ priority is now curbing inflation rather than stimulating asset prices, and he argues that this U-Turn will likely spell further trouble for the beleaguered stock market. Hodges also shares his latest insights on electric vehicles and the global chemicals market. Filmed on May 23, 2022.
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Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1
Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
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00:00 Introduction
13:45 Why Is Inflation Bad For Stocks?
21:24 Fate of Hyper-Growth Tech Stocks
23:15 Tesla
27:23 Ben Graham's Valuation Rules
30:03 Bit.com Ad
30:34 Recession In Europe
42:39 Recession Risk in the U.S.
46:10 Housing
49:05 The Federal Reserve
52:14 Chemicals Market Flashing Warning Signals
56:00 Recession in China
1:07:07 Electronic Vehicles (EVs) and Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXzB4SBaGDs
In this episode of On The Margin, Mike is joined by Peter Doyle the Managing Director, President & Co-Founder of Kinetics Mutual Funds, Inc. Peter weighs in on his thoughts surrounding the bailouts in 2020, navigating the risk of secular inflation, negative real returns for bonds and how Bitcoin could benefit society in the long run.
00:00 Introductions
04:25 Bailout for equity shareholders & financial market's
08:19 Central Banking
10:24 Secular Inflation
13:29 Investing in an inflationary environment
18:47 Hard assets: Gold, Silver, Real Estate & Bitcoin
24:01 Institutional perspective on Bitcoin
38:26 Optimistic future outlook
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On the Margin is brought to you by Matrixport, Asia’s fastest growing digital asset platform.
With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport
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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Mp2ucSadQ0
CZ, Founder of Binance, joins Charlie Shrem on today’s episode of Untold Stories.
CZ and Charlie discuss finance, decentralization, Bitcoin, private keys, defi, centralization, mass adoption, Binance, staking, earning interest in crypto, counterparty risks, smart contracts, DAO’s, publicly traded companies, ICO’s, yield farming, issuing tokens, high yields, liquidity swap, launch pool, bull markets, bear markets, and building the future of decentralized finance.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5sgbe-VDc8