Tesla Q4 Battery Updates // Production Dip and Rumors
In the Tesla Q4 2023 earnings call, Drew Baglino gave his usual battery updates. Today I'll breakdown what he said line-by-line, discuss why his comments indicate a production dip but his outlook is still positive.
I'll also cover rumors by Joe Tegtmeyer about cathode updates and asymmetric lamination, as well as rumors/reports on Weibo that Tesla is importing wet coated cathode from China.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 00:54 The Reuters Article 03:05 Line 1 Swapped to the Generation 2 Cell 05:08 Production vs Assembly 08:33 Implications for the 4680 Ramp 10:42 Elon Confirms Tesla’s Cell Suppliers 12:38 Joe Tegtmeyer’s Rumor // Cell Improvements 13:48 Weibo Rumor // Cathode Rolls from China 15:16 Summary
What do the 4680 current collectors do? There’s been speculation about what function they serve due to their intricate design. Today I'll walk you through that and why they might be a temporary crutch.
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*Timeline*
0:00 Introduction
1:27 'Current Collector'
2:00 The Positive Terminal // Copper Plate
4:11 The Negative Terminal // Aluminum Plate
6:35 Other Functions of the Current Collectors
7:22 The Design is Evolving // Cleanerwatt Leak
9:14 The Best Part is No Part
10:56 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GghT-O3IBK8
The results are in! UC San Diego tested the energy density of the Munro 4680 and today I share the results. I also discuss why the energy density is lower than expected and explain how it appears the Model Y Pack size is fully explained.
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*Timeline*
00:00 Introduction
01:31 The Munro 4680 Cell Overview
03:09 Energy Density Run Through
08:31 Off Brand 4680s ;)
09:50 Rate Performance & 6X Power Claim
11:26 Cathode and Anode Composition Slides
12:58 Model Y Pack Size Explained
14:12 Why is the 4680 Model Y so heavy?
15:05 First Gen is Still Economicially Viable
16:05 How'd I get Wh/kg so wrong in the 1st Teardown?
17:11 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XOHetABrag
In this video I interview Vivas Kumar and Chirranjeevi (Chirru) Gopal about their start-up: Mitra Chem, which has a mission of rehoming LFP Cathode Supply to the U.S.
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*Timeline*
00:00 Pre-Video Thoughts
00:56 Introduction
01:57 Vivas and Chirru Backgrounds
05:07 The Genesis of Mitra Chem and What Problem are they Solving?
09:24 Explainer from Me on What Mitra is Doing
11:59 Diversified Cathode Approach, Product Focus, Focus on Scaling
13:45 Clarifying Scope // What part of the Supply Chain Mitra is Targeting
15:03 Cell Level Testing is Important // Cell Formats
17:49 Mitra Chem Development Process
21:03 Brute Force vs Sequential Efficiency
22:40 Why LFP?
25:30 Adding LFP to Manganese
27:34 Effect of Adding Manganese
31:53 Incremental vs Breakthrough Approach // LFP & Na
33:50 Why LFP is Here to Stay and the Realities of Scale-Up
35:08 Focus on Rapid Iteration...Regardless of Chemistry
35:54 The Importance of Scale in Testing!
37:32 Notes from Me on Down Selection and the Importance of Scale
38:40 Emphasizing the Importance of Batch Size
39:43 Company Timeline - What's Next?
41:56 Sourcing Raw Materials
45:43 LFP Patents
46:52 Explainer on Patents from Me
47:38 Material Cost vs Units Acquired
49:22 Any Process Differences // Differences in Environmental Impact?
50:38 Economics // Product Cost
52:10 Increasing LFP Energy Density
54:13 Summary
55:34 Please Apply at Mitra Chem!
#BattChat #BatteryTwitter
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7-UQ7rFFAY
This video will review the progress of Giga Berlin's 4680 Cell Factory progress based Tesla's construction and operation application.
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*Timeline*
00:00 Introduction
00:50 Construction Application
01:16 Map of Buildings
02:30 The Cell Factory Building
05:09 Cell Production Process Wording
06:46 Flowsheet
09:10 Timeline
12:34 A Few Words on Austin
13:25 Summary
#BattChat #BatteryTwitter
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHWPjlX0ItI
My quarterly report on the Q1 earnings call from a battery perspective. This quarter there were again false reports on the 4680 ramp, so I'll also cover why the death of the 4680 has been greatly exaggerated.
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*Timeline*
00:00 Introduction
01:04 The Rumor Mill
02:31 The 4680 Ramp is Progressing Slowly
06:25 Cell Prices Are Cratering
09:50 Elon Provides Context on the 4680 Project
12:10 A Note on Lithium Supply
13:00 4680 // Unexpected Benefits for Third Party Supply
13:53 Inflation Reduction Act Incentives // A Market Distortion
16:33 Summary
18:00 A Note on the Megapack Ramp
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2pe0Kapn30
There appears to be plenty of lithium in the ground, yet supply forecasts say lithium will come up short. So, are global lithium supply forecasts accurate or is it a case of understanding the assumptions so we can form our own conclusions?
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*Timeline*
00:00 Introduction
01:31 Thanks, Credits, and Sources
05:03 Is there Enough Lithium in the Ground?
07:56 Let’s Evaluate Three Lithium Forecasts…
15:07 Benchmark’s Forecast // Revisions Explained
17:34 Lithium Supply in 2030 // Bull and Bear Cases
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-xe5EcaL-8
Can Tesla produce LFP in a 4680 battery cell? Yes, all the technologies unveiled at Battery Day are compatible with LFP. However, "Will they?" is a more nuanced and interesting question.
This video will cover the considerations involved in using a 4680 form factor, technology pathways for energy density improvements, and why I think LFP will become the dominant lithium chemistry.
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*Timeline*
00:00 Notes on the Q4 2021 Earnings Call
03:54 Introduction
04:56 Is a 4680 with LFP Viable?
10:02 Tesla's hints and my view
12:24 What I'm wrong?
12:59 The potential of LFP in the future
22:11 Is form factor an academic point?
22:57 Any barriers to Tesla LFP?
23:22 Are there an barriers to LFP us for other OEMs?
25:17 Summary: Roadmap and Cost Savings
#BattChat #BatteryTwitter
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIkA-mq5htw
In this video I'll walk you through how engineers are unlocking magnesium for lightweight vehicle castings. I'll walk you through 5 challenges and how they have been and are bering solved: Flammability, Corrosion, Size Limits, Availability & Cost, and GHG Emissions.
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Gigacasting Alloy Video: https://youtu.be/xtBIb0UyikQ?si=zLEwuu1VVLp-oRvS
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*Timeline*
00:00 Introduction
01:23 Challenge #1 // Flammability
07:34 Challenge #2 // Corrosion
10:51 Challenge #3 // Size Limits
14:12 Challenge #4 // Availability & Cost
18:30 Challenge #5 // GHG Emissions
20:01 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIv_Rfl0L_A
Two Years on YouTube! This video is my thoughts on where I am with the channel and what's next.
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*Timeline*
0:00 Intro
0:33 Thanks!
1:07 More Voices?
2:32 The Last Year
4:03 What's Missing from the Channel
6:03 What Full-Time Means
7:10 Gali's 4680
9:49 Possibly More Interviews
10:23 A Few More Thoughts on Getting Settled
11:03 The Cybertruck Video
12:21 Final Words
13:09 I Play Piano for the Credits
Piano Song: "Comptine d'un autre ete: l'apres-midi" by Yann Tiersen
#BattChat #BatteryTwitter
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cW1vI_FOQs