On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Alexander Stahel, Founder & CIO at Burggraben Holding AG join the show for a discussion on the current state of global macro & how those current macro factors are impacting energy markets. Turning bearish on oil in late 2022, Michael & Alex were able to sidestep the current downward price action experienced in 2023. Expecting macro headwinds and a less bullish setup in the supply & demand fundamentals, Michael & Alex walk through what the oil bulls got wrong & what to expect in the second half of 2023. Michael also shares his framework for the U.S dollar wrecking ball, which seems to be claiming its most recent victims over in Asia, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Alexander: https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 06:37 Why The Oil Bulls Were Wrong In 2023 13:47 Did Russian Sanctions Actually Impact Oil Supply? 23:43 Forecasting Oil Prices 31:05 European Gas Prices 33:37 The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball 38:41 Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis 41:34 Chinese Oil Demand 01:01:33 Why We're Not In An Oil Bull Market 01:17:23 Oil Has Further Downside Risk 01:24:13 Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwbMRdHs_tg

A clip from On The Margin, and our interview with Darius Dale. Find out more on channel! #shorts ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAgiLBMPcNw

Since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, many investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s recent lending to U.S. banks, which amounts to roughly $100 Billion as of late June. What has received far less attention is the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which has extended over $1 Trillion of liquidity (10x the Fed!) to banks throughout the U.S. Kathryn Judge, Harvey J. Goldschmid Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, joins Forward Guidance to explain the history and purpose of the FHLBanks, calling them the “lender of second-to-last resort.” Judge argues that the FHLB system has grown beyond its original mission and that reform is desperately needed. Judge also opines on the SEC’s move to regulate crypto, as well as SOFR’s replacement of LIBOR. Filmed on June 29th, 2023. ____ Follow Kathryn Judge on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfKateJudge Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Kathryn Judge’s book, “Direct: The Rise of the Middleman Economy and the Power of Going to the Source”: https://kathrynjudge.com/books/direct “The Problem Lender of Second-to-Last Resort”: https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-29-problem-lender-federal-home-loan-banks/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: 00:00 U.S. Banking System Is "Uneven" 03:06 What Is The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System? 07:24 Deregulation in 1980s and 1990s 11:22 Commercial Banks vs. Thrifts (And Glass–Steagall) 17:31 FHLB Lending During Great Financial Crisis (GFC) 25:14 "FHLB Has Never Lost Money On Advances" 33:54 FHLB's "Abuses" Must Stop 34:28 Permissionless 41:24 What Will New Bank Regulation Look Like? 50:38 Risk-Weighting In Bank Capital Regulations 53:42 Blockworks Research 54:42 Held-To-Maturity Accounting 58:37 The Rise Of Middlemen in Finance And Business 01:06:00 SEC's War With Crypto 01:08:04 The End Of LIBOR Eurodollar Contracts ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oZ0yzf-rzM

Jamie Catherwood, Client Portfolio Associate, O’Shaughnessy Asset Management Morgan Housel, Partner, Collaborative Fund Dan Rasmussen, Founder, Portfolio Manager, Verdad ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecqmu66Y3q4