In this video, I discuss how TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) work, and why I think that they are such a terrible investment.
The principal for TIPS is adjusted upwards or downwards based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). There are many problems with the CPI, including distortions caused by substitution effects as well as Goodhart's Law ("When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure").
The Federal government is incentivized to understate CPI inflation, both because it is a major debtor and also because it will then have to pay out less money in the form of inflation adjustments for TIPS.
The break-even inflation rate is calculated by subtracting the TIPS yield from the regular Treasury yield for securities with similar maturities. The break-even inflation rate is often considered the market's best estimate of future inflation, but I think rather it is the market's best estimate of what the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) will say that the CPI is over a given period of time.
For these reasons, I believe that gold and Bitcoin are much better hedges against inflation. Both allow an investor to preserve his purchasing power, without relying on the government to honestly assess actual rates of inflation.
Not investment advice! Consult a financial adviser.
CPI scam of the century:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHRnvPQgaTAInflation, government lies, and the stock market:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMKx32KaEBoCPI inflation:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL#0Chapwood index inflation:
https://chapwoodindex.com/Goodhart's Law:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_lawCurrent Treasury and TIPS yields:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us10-year Treasury yields:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1010-year TIPS yields:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII1010-year breakeven inflation rate:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE5-year breakeven inflation rate:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE30-year breakeven inflation rate:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T30YIEMMatthew Kratter is the author of the Amazon best-seller "A Beginner's Guide to the Stock Market":
https://www.amazon.com/Beginners-Guide-Stock-Market-Everything-ebook/dp/B07S31TBF5If you like my teaching style and would like to learn more about investing and trading stocks, options, and futures, be sure to check out my online courses here:
https://www.trader.university/joinUse this secret coupon code to get a discount: YT99
#Inflation
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