Emil Kalinowski, Co-Host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley on Forward guidance to talk about the current economy in which Kalinowski describes as “the silent depression.” Kalinowski and Farley exchange views on whether the Eurodollar system controls the Fed or the other way around.
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Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:30 The World's Third Depression
14:25 Recession Trends
16:08 Reasons For Current State of Depression
24:25 Banker Greed
30:28 Bit.com Ad
31:00 Speculation During A Depression
34:31 Inflation
44:23 The Euro Dollar System
51:20 Lending With the Euro Dollar System
53:29 Federal Reserve's Role in the Economy
1:06:19 Emil's Predictions for the Next 6 Months
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcl1RP1ziNo
This week, Mark & Mike discuss everything happening in the crypto markets. As Bitcoin holds steady bouncing around $20,000, should investors expect "crypto spring", or not? Mark shares his insights into the Metcalfe law model that Tim Peterson came on the show in February to discuss.
Mark & Mike also discuss Sam Bankman-Fried's proposed DeFi regulation, their broader outlook on the economy & much more. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
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Referenced In The Show:
Possible Digital Asset Industry Standards: https://www.ftxpolicy.com/posts/possible-digital-asset-industry-standards
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEEWQiKMSqE
Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG are pioneers in the world of hard assets, stern devotees of gold and Bitcoin, and deep skeptics about the sustainability of debt-based monetary systems. They join Jack to explain why a new era of stagflation has already begun, one in which inflation (“the wolf”) and a striking economic downturn (“the bear”) conspire to wreak havoc on the 60/40 portfolio and beguile central bankers all around the world.
Ronnie and Mark share their near-term outlook on gold and Bitcoin, and explain why they think the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to reverse course as economic growth falls rapidly.
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Referenced In The Show:
2022 In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en
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Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3
App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:28 Background
06:10 The Fed Put And The Everything Bubble
26:14 Gold and Bitcoin, Going Back In Time
40:45 Bit.com
41:16 Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook
54:32 Gold Near-Term Outlook
1:03:10 What If The Fed Doesn't Pivot?
1:14:00 Counterparty Risk
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEE8P4lOx74
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/
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Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noel’s prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky?
Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out!
Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting).
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Link to Noel’s first video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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00:00 Introduction
01:30 Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions
07:09 Forward Volatility
10:53 New Outlooks
19:08 Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade
22:00 Navigating High Environments
27:34 The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio
33:15 The Nature Of Money
37:08 Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility
44:52 Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors
49:52 Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed
54:40 S and P 500 Options Volatility Market
57:05 Short Squeezes
1:02:10 Looking at Revenues within Companies
1:04:12 Are we headed towards a recession?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-ulDCCgq1Y
Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the Chinese economic growth model, which Pettis argues faces severe challenges.
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Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance
to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.
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Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:40 China's Economic Growth Model
18:32 The Explosion of Debt in China
26:01 Van Eck ad
26:51 Domestic Consumption In China
35:04 How The Chinese Banking System Actually Works
39:04 Beijing's Controlled Demolition Of The Chinese Real Estate Bubble
43:20 Trade Imbalances Have Facilitated Massive Debt Creation in The U.S. And China
49:01 Why China's Use Of The Dollar Will Likely Continue
01:00:46 The Chinese Stock Market Does Not Track The Chinese Economy
01:02:45 Is The People's Bank Of China Adding Liquidity?
01:04:55 Chinese Growth in 2023 Could Actually Be Strong Relative To The U.S.
01:08:28 Closing Thoughts On Long-Term Chinese Economic Growth: Why The Pessimists Aren't Pessimistic Enough
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XO8o0TO-rfg
Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the market turmoil that has caught investors off guard so early on in 2022. Green tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rotation from growth stocks to the so-called “inflation-trades” (energy, industrial, and commodity stocks, for example), might have gotten ahead of itself.
Green examines the mechanics of how passive flows distort price discovery and cause tendencies for the market to drift steadily higher while also raising the risk of extreme downward price movements. He explains how options overlays can take advantage of this environment and discusses his decision to bring those products to investors in an ETF wrapper. Green also discusses Simplify’s new credit hedge ETFs, AGGH and CDX. Green argues that inflation will relent soon, and that the future rate hikes priced into the bond market likely overstate how far the Federal Reserve will actually raise rates.
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Mike Green on Twitter @profplum99
Simplify on Twitter @SimplifyETFs
Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96
Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_
Two papers Green discusses:
Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, “In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”: https://www.nber.org/papers/w28967
Lasse Heje Pedersen, “Sharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management”: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2849071
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For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
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Timestamps
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00:00 Introduction
14:44 Is Yet Another Powell Pivot In The Cards?
22:33 Market Risks
25:37 BCB Group Ad
27:34 Mechanics of Passive Investing
40:34 Insider Selling
41:16 Active ETFs and ARK Invest
47:45 Opportunities in Interest Rates
50:42 The Fed and Passive Investing
58:50 Options Strategies That Benefit from Large and Rapid Sell-Offs
1:08:
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTOgEmapzJQ
Today marks the end of an era for the Bank of Japan and global macro writ large, as Haruhiko Kuroda held his final policy meeting as governor of the Bank of Japan for March 2023, leaving his controversial Yield Curve Control policy unchanged, and maintaining a highly dovish stance as he exits. Governor Kuroda held his final press conference in which his only regret was that he was “unable to achieve a sustained 2% inflation rate” in Japan- despite a backdrop of Japan’s core CPI currently double that of the 2% objective, and many market participants and pundits calling for a final signature BOJ-shock for this meeting.
Jack Farley welcomes back Weston Nakamura again for a third consecutive BOJ policy meeting review to discuss the deteriorating state of market dysfunction and the warped yield curve amidst the Bank of Japan’s unprecedented scale of continued easing. They also review Governor Kuroda’s history-shaping unprecedented tenure, as well as the incoming new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, and the behind-the-scenes scramble to find who Weston feels is a disaster of a pick for the post-Kurodanomics era, using references from the hit-series Breaking Bad for character context.
Today also marks the beginning of another era, in which Tokyo-based derivatives trader and financial markets content creator Weston Nakamura officially joins Blockworks Macro to host a brand new podcast called Market Depth - in which Weston provides critical cross-asset market commentary and insights from Asia- where market activity and policy developments are having ever greater impact upon the global economy and market landscape. Market Depth debuts on Wednesday March 15th 2023, so be sure to follow the podcast on your favorite app, and subscribe to Blockworks Macro YouTube so that you don’t miss an episode!
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
10:05 Kuroda (Departing BOJ Governor) As Gus Fring
13:19 Kazuo Ueda (Incoming BOJ Governor)
18:09 Frankenstein Policy
23:26 Japanese Inflation
27:45 Bank Stocks Fall In Japan
29:54 The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank
36:37 Liquidity
43:04 Consequences For Japanese Yen
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f1wwYHTYqs
My guest today is Joe Lubin, Co-Founder of Ethereum and CEO and Founder of ConsenSys.
On this episode of Empire, we discuss where Bitcoin falls short, Joe leaving Wall Street for Crypto, founding Ethereum and ConsenSys, why forks can be good for progress, and Joe's real motivators.
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Empire is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like Empire, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.
Follow me on Twitter @JasonYanowitz and let me know what you thought of the show!
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtHIjFeNn9c