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Eskom COLLAPSING but Electricity Minister says “Future is bright” | Ep 169
#Eskom #Loadshedding #ANC
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Eskom collapse
Eskom’s performance has plummeted in recent years, causing increased load-shedding and a rapid rise in electricity prices.
Earlier this month, Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) plummeted to 50.84% – well below the same period last year and a new low for February.
The EAF shows the percentage of time the power station was available for use when it was needed. It is a core measure of performance for any power utility.
Energy analyst Chris Yelland said it was not surprising that the EAF plummeted, considering South Africa experienced stage 6 load-shedding.
The latest data also shows that Eskom’s EAF targets – reaching 60% by 31 March 2023, 65% by 31 March 2024, and 70% by 31 March 2025 – were misguided.
The latest data shared by Yelland showed that Eskom’s EAF is on a declining downward trend, which has been the case for the past five years.
For the EAF to increase and reach Eskom’s lofty target of 70% to end load-shedding, it must first stabilise and then improve. This has not happened.
It shows that South Africans should expect load-shedding to continue for many years. This is in line with the predictions of many experts.
University of Johannesburg Professor Hartmut Winkler said Eskom’s current infrastructure has aged to the point of deterioration.
“Just like an old car, once things get to that stage, you will have those very frequent breakdowns,” he said.
He predicted that South Africa would have power problems for another five years. However, load-shedding may not be as severe as it is now.
His view aligns with Eskom’s “Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2024 – 2028” report, which warned that it would not have enough electricity to serve South Africa’s needs in the next five years.
The study further indicated that the situation will worsen if the plant performance decline is not arrested and new generation capacity is not rolled out timeously.
“The future is bright” – Electricity Minister says the end of load shedding will start happening in March.
According to Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Minister in the Presidency for Electricity, load shedding will eventually come to an end despite “obstacles, uncertainties, and temporary setbacks.” He has said that things will start changing in March 2024.
The Minister outlined the actions the government and Eskom have taken to quickly address the nation’s energy crisis, including boosting new generation capacity and bringing back units to service on schedule or earlier.
He was speaking during Tuesday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) debate at Cape Town City Hall.
“From March of 2024, we will begin reducing planned maintenance”
“This also means that heading into the winter peak demand period, we can claw back up to 2 000MW by tapering planned maintenance and strengthening available capacity.
“From March of 2024, we will begin reducing planned maintenance from the current 6 000MW to 5 000MW in April 2024 and to around 3 500MW in May 2024, a threshold that will be sustained during the winter demand period,” he said.
Also Read: “I still have no words” – Namibia’s first lady remembers Late President Hage Geingob
“The end of load shedding is indeed in sight”
“[The] path to achieving a stable and sustainable energy landscape has been fraught with obstacles, uncertainties, and temporary setbacks and yet, with each passing day, we continue to register progress as we chart the path to energy security.
“The end of load shedding is indeed in sight; the future is bright,”
On Medupi Power station
“Units 1 to 3 of Kusile [Power Station], which had been out of service since October of 2022, were successfully returned ahead of schedule. As planned, Unit 5 was synchronised to the grid in December 2023, contributing 800MW. The four Kusile Units collectively injected 3200MW of capacity into the grid.
“Medupi [Power Station] Unit 4 will return to service this year in September, a year ahead of schedule. Kusile Unit 6 will be synchronised in late November 2024. These units will add 1600MW to the grid. In addition, Unit 2 of Koeberg [Power Station] will return to service in September 2024, giving us 980MW following a planned outage. These interventions will collectively add 2580MW to the grid in 2024. The end of load shedding is indeed within sight,”
...
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Eskom collapse
Eskom’s performance has plummeted in recent years, causing increased load-shedding and a rapid rise in electricity prices.
Earlier this month, Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) plummeted to 50.84% – well below the same period last year and a new low for February.
The EAF shows the percentage of time the power station was available for use when it was needed. It is a core measure of performance for any power utility.
Energy analyst Chris Yelland said it was not surprising that the EAF plummeted, considering South Africa experienced stage 6 load-shedding.
The latest data also shows that Eskom’s EAF targets – reaching 60% by 31 March 2023, 65% by 31 March 2024, and 70% by 31 March 2025 – were misguided.
The latest data shared by Yelland showed that Eskom’s EAF is on a declining downward trend, which has been the case for the past five years.
For the EAF to increase and reach Eskom’s lofty target of 70% to end load-shedding, it must first stabilise and then improve. This has not happened.
It shows that South Africans should expect load-shedding to continue for many years. This is in line with the predictions of many experts.
University of Johannesburg Professor Hartmut Winkler said Eskom’s current infrastructure has aged to the point of deterioration.
“Just like an old car, once things get to that stage, you will have those very frequent breakdowns,” he said.
He predicted that South Africa would have power problems for another five years. However, load-shedding may not be as severe as it is now.
His view aligns with Eskom’s “Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2024 – 2028” report, which warned that it would not have enough electricity to serve South Africa’s needs in the next five years.
The study further indicated that the situation will worsen if the plant performance decline is not arrested and new generation capacity is not rolled out timeously.
“The future is bright” – Electricity Minister says the end of load shedding will start happening in March.
According to Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Minister in the Presidency for Electricity, load shedding will eventually come to an end despite “obstacles, uncertainties, and temporary setbacks.” He has said that things will start changing in March 2024.
The Minister outlined the actions the government and Eskom have taken to quickly address the nation’s energy crisis, including boosting new generation capacity and bringing back units to service on schedule or earlier.
He was speaking during Tuesday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) debate at Cape Town City Hall.
“From March of 2024, we will begin reducing planned maintenance”
“This also means that heading into the winter peak demand period, we can claw back up to 2 000MW by tapering planned maintenance and strengthening available capacity.
“From March of 2024, we will begin reducing planned maintenance from the current 6 000MW to 5 000MW in April 2024 and to around 3 500MW in May 2024, a threshold that will be sustained during the winter demand period,” he said.
Also Read: “I still have no words” – Namibia’s first lady remembers Late President Hage Geingob
“The end of load shedding is indeed in sight”
“[The] path to achieving a stable and sustainable energy landscape has been fraught with obstacles, uncertainties, and temporary setbacks and yet, with each passing day, we continue to register progress as we chart the path to energy security.
“The end of load shedding is indeed in sight; the future is bright,”
On Medupi Power station
“Units 1 to 3 of Kusile [Power Station], which had been out of service since October of 2022, were successfully returned ahead of schedule. As planned, Unit 5 was synchronised to the grid in December 2023, contributing 800MW. The four Kusile Units collectively injected 3200MW of capacity into the grid.
“Medupi [Power Station] Unit 4 will return to service this year in September, a year ahead of schedule. Kusile Unit 6 will be synchronised in late November 2024. These units will add 1600MW to the grid. In addition, Unit 2 of Koeberg [Power Station] will return to service in September 2024, giving us 980MW following a planned outage. These interventions will collectively add 2580MW to the grid in 2024. The end of load shedding is indeed within sight,”
...
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Residents stop IEC registering voters in Philippi
Community leaders say elections make no difference to their terrible living conditions
Aggrieved residents of Marikana informal settlement in Philippi East, Cape Town, chased away Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) officials who came to register voters this past weekend.
Residents told GroundUp they have given up on the electoral process.
An IEC station had been set up to enable tens of thousands of shack dwellers to register as voters for the upcoming general elections.
Resident Aphiwe Bilatye told GroundUp there was chaos at the registration station minutes after the IEC set up their systems, when members of the community came to chase them away.
“The officials walked out of the station, of course scared for their lives, because they were intimidated, but the community leaders protected them,” said Bilatye.
“Politicians have failed us dismally,” he said.
Community leader Lihlumelo Apleni told GroundUp they will not allow the IEC to operate in Marikana until their living conditions improve. He said it was the “first step of many to come, to show that we are fed up with being bullied”.
“We have been staying here for almost a decade but still we don’t have the simplest basic services, one being electricity.”
Some residents told GroundUp they had wanted to register. They asked not to be named for fear of intimidation.
“Yes, the decision was taken in a community meeting weeks before this weekend. But not everyone is happy about that decision, because to change the current government one must vote them out. But if we don’t register and we don’t vote we can’t change the status quo,” said one.
“It is a little bit foolish not to take part in elections but at the same time want to see change,” said another.
In 2015, Marikana had over 60,000 residents and 12,000 households. Community members estimate there are now over 100,000 residents.
Basic services such as water, sanitation and refuse removal are very limited. Illegal electricity connections are common. The settlement is prone to flooding and shack fires.
Residents have for years demanded that the City of Cape Town buy the privately owned land so that it can install services, and in 2017 – in a landmark decision – the court ruled in their favour. But years later they still sit without basic services.
IEC comments
Michael Hendrickse, IEC provincial electoral office, said, “In the interest of the safety of the staff, the owners of our venues and the community members, the decision was taken not to open.”
“Other voting stations in ward 35 were operating,” he said.
“It is not acceptable that members of the community cannot make use of the opportunities provided by the IEC to participate in our democratic processes”.
“We call on members of the community to always allow the IEC to operate across the province while they resolve their concerns with the relevant role players,” said Hendrickse.
He said there was still an opportunity for people eligible to vote to utilise the online registration facilities.
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ANC forges ahead with controversial Ipid bill giving Cele more power
The ANC on Wednesday rammed through the processing of the bill that will give Police Minister Bheki Cele more powers over the Independent Police Investigative Directorate (Ipid), including the power to appoint the executive director.
The governing party pushed that the police portfolio committee adopt the motion of desirability of the Ipid Amendment Bill despite the chief state law adviser refusing to certify it and the parliamentary legal adviser and an independent senior counsel finding the amendment bill unconstitutional.
The amendment bill provides that the minister, with the concurrence of the Cabinet, shall appoint the Ipid executive director. This is a departure from the current act that makes a provision for the police minister to nominate a new Ipid head and that allows for MPs to either approve or reject the nomination.
The proposed amendment bill also gives powers to Cele to determine the remuneration of Ipid investigators in consultation with the finance minister.
DA MP Andrew Whitfield said there was no dispute around the unconstitutionality of the bill.
“It appears to be unprecedented that Parliament should deal with a bill that is not certified by the office of the state law adviser and even continue to amend the bill,” he said.
Underpinning their concerns was a “nefarious agenda” by Cele, who was not present at Wednesday’s and last week’s meetings to answer their questions.
“A nefarious agenda has been calculated to monopolise control over the entire department in so far as the Civilian Secretariat that reports to the minister, the national commissioner and ultimately the (Ipid) executive director appointed and reporting to the minister,” said Whitfield.
NFP’s Munzoor Shaik-Emam questioned the basis of the committee discussing the matter when there was legal advice pointing to the bill’s unconstitutionality.
“I think we are going to shoot ourselves in the foot and that is basically what is going to happen,” Shaik-Emam said.
IFP’s Zandile Majozi: “If we have received advice that states clearly that the removal of Parliament involvement renders the bill unconstitutional, I am not sure why we are discussing it.”
Freedom Front Plus leader Pieter Groenewald asked why they should process the bill knowing it was unconstitutional.
“I can’t imagine that the Cabinet, knowing that it is an unconstitutional bill, then submitted and tabled in Parliament. If that is true, the integrity of the Cabinet is at stake,” Groenewald said.
ANC MP Patricia Peacock said it had been indicated that amendments could be made to the bill.
“Since correction and amendments can be made we can move to a motion of desirability,” Peacock said.
Deputy Minister Cassel Mathale said the guidance from the parliamentary legal adviser was that the committee could proceed to process the bill.
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“We could not withdraw the bill that was already submitted to the committee. That was to delay the whole process,” he said.
When the matter was put to a vote, the ANC and the opposition obtained four votes each.
Newly-elected chairperson Albert Seabi cast his vote to give the green light for the bill to be processed by the committee.
The MPs heard that the bill would be advertised for public comments until October 2, followed by public hearings before the adoption of the report in November.
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