Byteball and Bitcoin Cash finally started to pump together with most other Alts so I think last phase of this bubble has started where alts reach new ATHs vs fiat AND Bitcoin. We are at $650 billion market cap now, 650% above the historical average valuation of $90 billion. At 800% or 800 billion I plan to go to a majority Fiat as I think odds have become high then for a strong crypto correction. Hopefully by that time my portfolio has also succeeded in reaching an all time high in Bitcoin value, something I can certainly achieve if Bitcoin Cash and/or Byteball are able to reach or breach their ATH in Bitcoin value again of respectively 0.5 BTC/BCH and 0.35 BTC/GBYTE. To end, starting at 8:50 little presentation on new McLaren's 570s entry model, new 720 mid range model and my opinion vs Lamborghini Huracan, Aventador & Gallardo. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbN70QfKSps
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM14TW5fCgM
Biggest mistake I made in this 2 year bull market is not sticking to my plan to sell as value cryptomarket goes up. I sold when it just went down. Other than that I am at peace with myself ?
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItjFYM8CxaU
Losing 5% per year on my cash position due to inflation is a high price to pay. I realized that eventhough the PP World (75% Stocks / 25% Gold) does have negative years from time to time, it still makes sense to invest in it, even if my time horizon is only 1 year.
Average, and therefore expected, returns are 8% per year. If I'm unlucky and hit on that negative year, it's not a big problem as I will just have less money to invest, but was still a bet worth taking, and a good habit to have, not to leave your cash position hanging out in the dry devaluing.
Especially today now that:
1. We have a small correction this year (YTD -5%) and negative sentiment.
2. After so many bad years for stocks and the PP, with historical low avg returns past 10 years of 5% only last year, and only this year reaching average returns of 9% for past 10 years, odds are high the next few years will be very good as trend for stocks is up, trend for gold down, but since PP has mostly stocks, trend for PP is also up for another 10 years, likely peaking out at avg return of 17% per year by then.
3. Interest rates started rising and we now have a full history to look back at of bottom interest rates (1948) to peak interest rates (1980), back to bottom (2015) and rising again since then, and thus start similar climate of 50's and 60's to look back to and learn from.
Links:
Sheet with returns: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSToqZQThdLCOgRJjRNavcg0qLUNqZXt28HDye-g15g6qk4U1kO289PEUClEFgC2d-M-J51wJFqCI9-/pubhtml
Sheet PDF: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSToqZQThdLCOgRJjRNavcg0qLUNqZXt28HDye-g15g6qk4U1kO289PEUClEFgC2d-M-J51wJFqCI9-/pub?output=pdf
Previous videos about the sheet:
-Historical Returns Since 1928 - Stocks, Gold, Inflation & Permanent Portfolio: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbkDEhFzG8o
-Is This The Perfect Passive Portfolio? ?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4I1cTUMtv7s
-Another interesting video: Real Inflation = 5% - Historical Prices Of New Home, New Car, Oil, Bacon, Chocolate, Soup, ... : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIO06yLUiYI&t
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfffJ0iKgpo
#Cryptocurrency currently at 520B, and with trendline currently at 450B, is again overvalued with about 15%. Last I did a Trololo analyses 2 months ago we were at 340B, -20% under-valued. Then I said the same as I say today, yes 40% exposure to crypto today is smart as there is a small but real chance that it goes into a bubble at anytime considering the relative low valuation of crypto vs other asset classes.
However it is likely that we go back into serious undervaluation (hit green lower band around 200B) before we brake ATH's and go parabolic as we did so in every other cycle, where bear and early bull market was categorized bya long period of being around the lower band, not just hitting it once as we have done until today.
Also corrected upwards target from 2.5T to 5T as I agree I made a mistake in my calculation, but then still not much changes to my overall analyses that there will be likely much better opportunities to invest in crypto over the next year allowing one to go to majority exposure again, but that you also cannot afford to have no exposure at all.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYX-403ajUE
It's been 3 years since I have been so enthousiastic about a new crypto! Make sure you register your bitcoins ASAP, before 25 DEC 00:00:00 UTC!!! Be careful to download LIVE client (v0.7.1, notice 1 at end), not TESTNET client (V8.0t)! Don't forget to back up your wallet first, see below for more. Download here: https://github.com/byteball/byteball/releases
Complete instructions here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1608859.0
More info about project here:
https://byteball.org
Backup instructions: For a complete backup of your Bytes and Blackbytes, *the wallet seed is not enough*!
On *windows*, backup all contents of hidden byteball folder 'C:\Users\yourusername\AppData\Local\byteball'. To get there go to windows file explorer and insert in search bar on top: %LOCALAPPDATA%\byteball
On *linux*, backup hidden folder '~/.config/byteball'.
On *osx* (mac os), backup folder '~/Library/Application Support/byteball'.
*As Blackbyte transactions are only stored locally, it must be done again every time after you've sent or received Blackbytes!*
Check out my:
https://twitter.com/marcdemesel
https://instagram.com/marc_de_mesel/
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPicDP-ehfU
Fine tuned my plan right before we started collapsing yesterday from $260B to current $222B (ie: with fearless mind). We reached -35% "serious undervaluation" again, so do recommend majority exposure again from Trololo Trendline perspective, but also implemented Kelly Criterion allocation, which is recommending less exposure, and taking the average allocation now. Also have 4 steps again. Here my new Buy in & Exposure Targets + coin I plan to buy:
@ $200B Total Market Cap / "Golden Retrace to $7500/BTC", will go to 37% crypto exposure, making up mistakes first and buying my first ETH position
@ $170B / "New High Undervaluation of -55% To Trendline", will go to 50% exposure, more ETH
@ $120B / "Double Bottom to $3500/BTC", will go to 66% exposure, more BCH
@ $60B / "New Bottom to $2000/BTC", will go to 80% exposure, investing last time in more BCH
*May Our Dream Come True*
#BitcoinCash #Ethereum
Link My Crypto Investment Plan:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WSeePxcqVyZ__99I-dAcvMBZuEzTq1DX8KzstSKoS5c/edit#gid=43
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOn611VbvMU
Predicting bottom in altcoins as bitcoin recovers back to $1000. How Bitcoin is overvalued vs altcoins, losing the gambling market to Clams and the exchange market to Nxt, but is strengthening it's position with merchants and gaining new markets in ETF's & Remittance. What sucks about Counterparty, Bitshares, Ripple, Stellar and Litecoin. What I like about Dogecoin. What I want to see before I would invest in Dash, Monero, Nxt Assets or Supernet and other ramblings in this epic 1 hour session. Enjoy! :)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02pSqVHOqw4
Learning to say no is what's needed before you'll find what's worth saying yes to. This applies to investments, but also to girls or career choices.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGA_P7LsqFo