The number of confirmed cases of the new crown continues to increase, but why is the number of deaths declining?
Dr Dominique Eggermont, Medical Director, Dubai
In addition to the continuous spread of the virus in communities in certain countries/regions, on the other hand, the detection of COVID-19 has been continuously strengthened. As a result, more confirmed cases have been discovered. Due to the early detection, these cases tend to have mild symptoms, and may even be accidental asymptomatic infections (because the current proportion of asymptomatic infections is relatively high).
At first, some scholars believed that the decline in mortality was caused by "Lead Time Bias"; that is, under normal circumstances, it takes several weeks for the results of deaths of infected persons to be statistically aggregated after a few weeks of infection with the virus. Communicate to the public.
However, it is now very clear that although the "number of death cases" lags behind the "number of confirmed cases" in time, both the case fatality rate (CFR) and the infection fatality rate (CFR) are lower than those of the epidemic. Early stage.