Summary: It's been a tough year, made huge losses again with NXT, luckily made some profits thanks to liquidating my gold mining stocks for bitcoin around €200, but still lost -20% overall. Why I have 80% of my total portfolio in crypto, and majority of that in altcoins and why I started to invest in Clams.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYOQsIe2FMU
Was wrong in previous video in that I do not think we have hit historically high undervaluation today that justifies a majority position (See chart: https://twitter.com/Awe_andWonder/status/1093756318425468928). But I do think one has to be prepared for that event to happen anytime over next half year when Bitcoin breaks $3200 and likely bottoms at $2500, worst case $1900. Recommended 40% crypto exposure, and still do today, but go to majority of at least 60% up to 100% if you are comfortable with such risk level. Buy & Hold forever or HODL is nonsensical when market extremes occur. If you have good tools you can read whether we reach serious over or undervaluation and are wise to act upon that. Also a word on babies sucking titties.
Other Great Chart:
https://twitter.com/gravitywave2/status/1108968866950967301
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLGMSKLPHkM
I was way too selective in crypto during early bull of 2015/2016, investing in only 1 or 2 projects and saying no to all others. This costed me a fortune in missed opportunity. Not making this mistake again in this, I believe, early stock bull market that started in 2009 and will likely last till 2040 and therefore starting to invest in different stocks, without doing much research.
Similarly I stayed invested way too much in late stage crypto bull market, clearly in bubble at end 2017, selling down from 95% to only 75%, eventhou odds were high it would go down a lot.
Afraid I am making same mistake today in Crypto as I believe odds to see a prolonged bear market making new lows, due to a lack of real adoption, to be high. Yet I am still invested for 42% in mainly Bitcoin Cash. The only positive is that it is a controversial project, hated by many, only around 2% market share/dominance, and potential to be valued higher relative to Bitcoin Core with it's staggering 62% dominance.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2bZYw9IXHM
Why buying bitcoin today, eventhough price just went up a lot, makes good sense! (hint it's just getting started...) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI
Here you can see how quickly bitcoin may rise to $5000 (by next year, end 2014!): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3464070#msg3464070
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrY5desgleo
I am continuing to stash cash to now 45% allocation, to protect against a probably much stronger market crash. Excluding decelerating China numbers, that even if true were reached only by an almost complete standstill of the economy, internationally the #CoronaVirus is growing virally, 10 folding every 2 weeks. If this continues we will go from current 10k infected to 1 Million in only 1 month! Very likely this will collapse - all markets - to a much larger extend than what we saw. Therefore protecting your portfolio today becomes paramount. Sure central banks will print, but the inflation this causes will only slow down the collapse in prices as contrary to popular believe, markets are much stronger than central banks to set prices.
Only if data shows clearly the exponential growth is halted can one safely invest in markets again. Even if markets would respond irrationally and continue to go up, better to miss an opportunity than lose your shirt. It is the responsible thing to do to avoid danger and risk, and allows you to focus on the vital stuff: protecting the life of yourself and loved ones by starting to isolate as catching the virus the first months when there are no proven therapies, vaccines, antibiotics, medicines and healthcare systems is overloaded, under equipped and uninformed, is to be avoided at all cost!
Portfolio now:
30% #Stocks ($TSLA)
25% #Crypto (15% $ETH, 5% $BCH)
45% #Cash, now my largest position
Links:
#CoronavirusOutbreak does spread exponentially
https://twitter.com/MarcDeMesel/status/1235224955324977152
Electricity consumption in China down by 40%
https://twitter.com/MarcDeMesel/status/1235285643565174784
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhVWYsRwuZs
Going to 0% Cash is scary as markets could correct again considering some economic indicators do look bad, for example amount of small businesses defaulting. In such scenario my short on gold would likely make some money, but I would still have no cash to buy assets cheaply such as crypto, and would have to sell some other assets at a loss to be able to do so.
A great backup plan however is to Short Bonds in such scenario as they likely will go up then, this would generate cash that you can then invest in the other assets that dropped. Long term gov bonds are clearly in bubble valuations already since 2009 when interest rates dropped to zero, but are now after 10 year bottoming starting to go up again. Timing may be perfect if another mini crash happens to start shorting bonds and making money of it for likely the next 30 years as interest rates go up again.
Shorting gold as well as bonds can be done for an interest rate of only 0.5%, a much cheaper way to leverage your portfolio, and invest with more money than you have, compared to taking margin loans that will cost you 10 times more in interest rate and where no capital appreciation on the loan is possible, let alone probable.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbG2_m4LH9E
Starting to chase gold on the way down, increasing my short Gold from -13% to -20%, thereby increasing my 30% cash to 50% cash.
Planning to invest short sale proceeds around current market price in stocks to protect them against inflation, will still have 30% cash left that I can hopefully deploy in other non correlated investments if market corrects more, which is probable I think.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlslZ8ju82E
Geld verliest steeds meer koopkracht, is niet meer veilig op de bank, en bankgeheim is ook al niet meer. Bitcoin lost dit op, het behoudt zijn koopkracht en stijgt zelfs, kan je zelf veilig opslaan, en je hebt terug privacy.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIFRLpHlIoo
Catherine Wood of ARK Invest has really impressed me. It's rare to see a great fund manager, but she's on top of it with her new firm ARK invest. Was thinking of buying more Tesla as price goes up, with the margin excess that becomes available, but think wiser to invest in something else totally uncorrelated. This way if Tesla goes down, maybe the other investment will go up and save the account, hence $ARKG.
Interview with Catherine why Genomic Revolution is ready for prime time:
https://youtu.be/-hnK2cEvbJg?t=650
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kJEJXu97-U
Great general interview with Catherine Wood
https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1148319846461059074
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrwC3YH3_FM