Tax planning is one way that investors can keep more of their returns. Asset location is a form of tax planning. Note that I am not talking about asset allocation, which is deciding how much of each asset class you should hold. Asset location is the practice of holding certain asset classes in certain account types. For example, holding bonds in the RRSP, and Canadian stocks in the taxable account to minimize the overall tax drag on returns.
I’m Ben Felix, Portfolio Manager at PWL Capital. In this episode of Common Sense Investing, I’m going to tell you why you shouldn’t get lost trying to locate your assets.
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In this edition of Common Sense Investing, I'll tell you why past performance won't indicate how well a fund will perform in the future.
Watch to find out and let me know what you think about this in the comment section below!
Referenced in this video:
On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance - https://www.jstor.org/stable/2329556?seq=1
Luck Versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund Returns - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1356021
------------------
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Wars and financial markets have coexisted, and often been intertwined, for hundreds of years. Countries that have lost major wars have had their financial markets decimated, while global markets have been relatively resilient, even to major conflicts. Despite the relative resilience of global markets, crises and wars tend to reduce global market returns and increase their volatility.
Special Rational Reminder episode: https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/special-episode-stock-bonds-and-war
Referenced in this video:
War, Peace and Stock Markets: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=885980
ICB Project: https://sites.duke.edu/icbdata/
WHY DOES STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY CHANGE OVER TIME?: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w2798/w2798.pdf
Earning from History? Financial Markets and the Approach of World Wars: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/2008a_bpea_ferguson.pdf
The General Theory of Employment: https://macroeconomiauca.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/keynes_general_theory_of_employment_qje_1937.pdf
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The term “Emerging Markets” was coined in 1981 by the International Finance Corporation as a marketing term to help make the case for foreign investors investing in developing economies. Today, emerging markets make up roughly 10-12% of the global market capitalization representing around 25 countries including China, Taiwan, India, South Korea, and, until recently, Russia.
Characteristics like high economic growth expectations and attractive valuations compel some investors to overweight emerging markets in their portfolios, but there are some often overlooked facts, costs, and risks that should be carefully considered.
Referenced in this video:
Establishing ‘Emerging Markets’: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/corp_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/about+ifc_new/ifc+history/establishing-emerging-markets
Is Economic Growth Good for Investors? : http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Jay_Ritter_paper_14_August-Economic-Growth-and-Stock-Returns.pdf
Earnings Growth: The Two Percent Dilution: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/content/dam/ra/documents/FAJ-2003-Two-Percent-Dilution.pdf
Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets: https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Published_Papers/P64_Foreign_speculators_and.pdf
Equity Market Liberalization in Emerging Markets: https://public.kenan-flagler.unc.edu/faculty/lundblac/equity_market_liberalization.pdf
What Segments Equity Markets?:https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/financialstudies/files/files/equity.pdf
Drivers of Expected Returns in International Markets:https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Published_Papers/P69_The_drivers_of.pdf
Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests: https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Published_Papers/P56_Conditional_skewness_in.pdf
------------------
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7:30 I say that Fama and French found that over a 23-year period there was a 23% chance of value under-performing. I should have said that over a *3-year period* there was a 23% chance of value under-performing.
A value stock has a low price relative to some fundamental metric like book value or earnings. The value premium is the excess return that value stocks are expected to earn over the market. This excess return has historically been, and is expected to continue to be, positive. In other words, value stocks have higher expected returns than the market.
Referenced in this video:
- Volatility Lessons https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=134094121066112087075072085088107120021087025040030006018105081106124081029070105023027001056044123040017070001072012124019093102008032018048095101099103120007069029066042024018095102083114109121005108083070092064095112124085026115116031107096097122&EXT=pdf
- The Value Premium https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3525096
- Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=378070074070098110124101067088126076009075022081036087078089004067078002091125065007021011006001039100019102099007107095112094116049039081035027107115093068086106025069011095094070088126007104066098126070011081006004066029002072072081114108125112081072&EXT=pdf
- Risk and Return of Value Stocks https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=112553
- The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns https://www.ivey.uwo.ca/cmsmedia/3775518/the_cross-section_of_expected_stock_returns.pdf
- It’s Time for a Venial Value-Timing Sin https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Its-Time-for-a-Venial-Value-Timing-Sin
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Making the housing decision requires careful consideration of both the financial and non-financial impacts, and the way that they interact with each other. There is no universally right way to approach housing. In many cases, contrary to conventional wisdom and societal pressure, renting is a better option than owning, both financially and from the perspective of subjective well-being.
Referenced in this video:
Extrinsic Value Orientation and Affective Forecasting: Overestimating the Rewards, Underestimating the Costs https://sdtheory.s3.amazonaws.com/SDT/documents/2010_SheldonGunzNicholsFerguson_JOP.pdf
Does the Dream of Home Ownership Rest Upon Biased Beliefs? A Test Based on Predicted and Realized Life Satisfaction https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3660256
The American Dream or the American Delusion? The Private and External Benefits of Homeownership for Women https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1877163
Homeownership and Happiness: Evidence for Switzerland https://digitalcollection.zhaw.ch/bitstream/11475/18640/3/2019_Hofmann-Umbricht_Homeownership-and-happiness-Switzerland_SREJ.pdf
The relationship between homeownership and life satisfaction in Germany https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/51372/1/672468557.pdf
Is a Fixer-Upper Actually a Downer? https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10511482.2017.1367317
If Money Doesn't Make You Happy Then You Probably Aren't Spending It Right https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/danielgilbert/files/if-money-doesnt-make-you-happy.nov-12-20101.pdf
The relative relativity of material and experiential purchases https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20053039/
The McMansion Effect: Top House Size and Positional Externalities in U.S. Suburbs https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3378131
Book: Happy Money https://dunn.psych.ubc.ca/book-happy-money/
Shelter in the Canadian CPI: An overview https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0014m/62f0014m2017001-eng.htm
Theory of Homes and Jobs https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/ajoswald/homejobs.pdf
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What do you do if you are not concerned with volatility, and are willing to take on even more risk than the stock market has to offer? There are two options: reducing diversification, or using leverage.
References in this episode:
- Life-Cycle Investing and Leverage: Buying Stock on Margin Can Reduce Retirement Risk: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1149340
- Lifecycle Investing: A New, Safe, and Audacious Way to Improve the Performance of Your Retirement Portfolio: https://www.amazon.ca/Lifecycle-Investing-Audacious-Performance-Retirement-ebook/dp/B003GYEGK2
- Embedded Leverage: http://docs.lhpedersen.com/EmbeddedLeverage.pdf
- Why Do Most Investors Choose Concentration Over Leverage?: https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Alternative-Thinking/Why-Do-Most-Investors-Choose-Concentration-Over-Leverage
- Leveraged ETF Rebalancing: An ETFdb.com Guide: https://etfdb.com/leveraged-etfs/under-the-hood-of-leveraged-etfs/
Path-Dependence of Leveraged ETF Returns: https://www.math.nyu.edu/faculty/avellane/SIAMLETFS.pdf.pdf
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The implications of market efficiency for investors are sweeping. If asset prices always fully reflect available information, there are only two ways to profit: by taking a risk that has been priced into the market, which can be done cheaply with an index fund. If the market is not efficient, then it should be possible to profit by consistently selecting undervalued stocks, and timing the market.
Referenced in this video:
the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) - https://rationalreminder.ca/sensible-investing/
The Performance of Mutual Funds - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00815.x
Do Low-Volatility/Low-Beta ETFs Make Sense? - https://www.pwlcapital.com/do-low-volatility-low-beta-etfs-make-sense/
On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance - https://www.jstor.org/stable/2329556?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
Luck versus Skill in the Cross-Section of Mutual Fund Returns. - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01598.x
The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics - https://eml.berkeley.edu/~craine/EconH195/Fall_14/webpage/Malkiel_Efficient%20Mkts.pdf
Interview with Eugene Fama - https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/interview-with-eugene-fama
The Superinvestors Of Graham-and-Doddsville - https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/columbia-business/superinvestors
Betting Against Beta - https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/Betting-Against-Beta
Catch up on our latest investing advice, insights and white papers here.
https://www.pwlcapital.com/teams/passmore-felix/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=copy&utm_campaign=ben2019&utm_content=marketefficient
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#investing #strategies #marketefficiency
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Some of the world’s largest companies have dominated stock market returns in recent history. For the five years ending July 2020, an equal-weighted portfolio of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla more than quadrupled in value, leaving a total market index fund investor in the dust. Who knew beating the market could be so easy?
Referenced in this video:
Do Global Stocks Outperform US Treasury Bills? https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3415739
Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1757025
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In this episode of Common Sense Investing, I will tell you why your active manager is not able to protect your downside.
An active money manager might tell you that they are able to act defensively to protect your investments during a down market. While the thought of letting your portfolio fall with the market is unpleasant, there is no evidence of the ability of active managers to consistently offer protection from bad markets.
My name is Ben Felix of PWL Capital and this is Common Sense Investing. I’ll be talking about a lot more common sense investing topics in this series, so subscribe and click the bell for updates. I want these videos to help you to make smarter investment decisions, so feel free to send me any topics that you would like me to cover in the comments section below.
Referenced in this video:
Luck vs. Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund Returns - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1356021
------------------
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