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Private Markets To Implode As Fed Hikes to 7% | Bilal Hafeez
Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, is a veteran of macro analysis and he joins today’s interview with some truly bold calls. Hafeez argues that a severe recession is coming but the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates to 7 or even 8 percent in order to destroy inflation. Hafeez tells Farley that he thinks private markets (venture capital but in particular private equity) will perform poorly as earnings fall and financing costs rise sharply. Hafeez also shares his outlook on China, Energy, the U.S. Dollar, and crypto.
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To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308 and use promotional code “JACK.” Offer ends on January 6th, 2022.
Macro Hive Prime membership includes cross market strategy, economic analysis, central bank policy analysis, equity insights and trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, and academic paper summaries. To get a sense of the quality of Macro Hive’s analysis, check out Bilal’s piece on asset allocation: https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/asset-allocation-update-cash-wins-2022/
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Follow Bilal Hafeez on Twitter https://twitter.com/bilalhafeez123
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:42 Macro Outlook For 2023
05:32 Severe Recession Incoming
10:20 Complete Implosion" of Private Markets Is Gray Swan For 2023
22:55 Venture Capital Is Already Feeling The Pain
25:38 Other Grey Swans: TikTok & World Peace
31:16 China
38:15 Can China Print Its Way Out Of Its Mess?
42:08 Bond Market Outlook
49:39 Energy
54:21 Is Europe In A Recession?
55:51 How High Will Central Banks Raise Interest Rates?
57:35 Discount To Macro Hive Prime
01:00:24 The U.S. Dollar
01:09:59 Crypto
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBR5Etl0ttQ
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To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308 and use promotional code “JACK.” Offer ends on January 6th, 2022.
Macro Hive Prime membership includes cross market strategy, economic analysis, central bank policy analysis, equity insights and trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, and academic paper summaries. To get a sense of the quality of Macro Hive’s analysis, check out Bilal’s piece on asset allocation: https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/asset-allocation-update-cash-wins-2022/
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Follow Bilal Hafeez on Twitter https://twitter.com/bilalhafeez123
Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:42 Macro Outlook For 2023
05:32 Severe Recession Incoming
10:20 Complete Implosion" of Private Markets Is Gray Swan For 2023
22:55 Venture Capital Is Already Feeling The Pain
25:38 Other Grey Swans: TikTok & World Peace
31:16 China
38:15 Can China Print Its Way Out Of Its Mess?
42:08 Bond Market Outlook
49:39 Energy
54:21 Is Europe In A Recession?
55:51 How High Will Central Banks Raise Interest Rates?
57:35 Discount To Macro Hive Prime
01:00:24 The U.S. Dollar
01:09:59 Crypto
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBR5Etl0ttQ
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CAN E
can-europe's-economy-handle-russian
Frances Coppola, Economist, Author & banking expert, joins Forward Guidance to give an update on how the West's new sanctions on Russia are playing out. Coppola explains how key commodities such as Russian natural gas and oil continue to flow to Western countries, and she makes an impassioned case for why a ban on Russian energy is necessary to thwart the imperial ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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Follow Frances Coppola on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
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(00:00) Introduction
(00:58) Overview of Sanctions on Russia
(07:08) Oil & Natural Gas
(09:30) Wheat
(14:20) Demand Destruction and Recession Risk
(18:00) When Will We Hit Peak Inflation?
(21:20) Central Bank Response Function
(27:01) The European Central Bank (ECB) And Inflation
(32:02) BCB Ad
(35:45) The Dollar's Surge
(1:20:36) Breton Woods III
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHEKaAbBXi0
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LAYOF
layoffs-are-just-getting-started
In this week's episode, Mike and Mark get into a subject that is near and dear to everyone's heart: layoffs. The episode begins by getting into the raw numbers: initial and continuing jobless claims, the change in recent reports from ADP, and the record number of mentions of "hiring freeze" from CEOs.
Next Mike and Mark cover how monetary policy and liquidity translate to demand and hiring needs at company. They cover things from the investor point of view, as well as the employee point of view and how you should think about taking on equity compensation.
Finally, they cover insider trading laws in crypto and recent negative statements coming from the New York AG. For that discussion, you'll have to tune into the episode.
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Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko
Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_
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Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter
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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.
Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw
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Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.
Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.
More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-iX0SxkAMM
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HOW T
how-to-become-a-better-trader-with-david
My guest today is David Waslen, CEO of Rublix. Rublix is a software development company focused on Fintech fueled by blockchain technology, their first decentralized project is HedgeTrade. HedgeTrade is a crypto prediction social marketplace, where traders can post trading predictions and are rewarded if their information/prediction was accurate. HedgeTrade accomplishes this by holding forecasters accountable through immutable blockchain records and the unique smart contract staking model. David Waslen has a background in venture capital and private equity with extensive experience managing growing businesses. The Topics we discussed included what is HedgeTrade, why derivatives markets are important for the growth of crypto, the incentive model and the token economics of HedgeTrade, Singapore becoming the new global Financial Capital and much more.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfUy6Yup67I
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THE "
the-debt-spiral-end-game-james-lavish
Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T
Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM
Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX
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On today’s episode, James Lavish Managing Partner at The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund joins the show to discuss his debt spiral thesis.
With a "tsunami of debt" on the horizon, James walks through the end game for the unsustainable U.S fiscal path. We discuss the odds of recession in 2024, how to repair the debt problem & which assets will thrive in this environment. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a...
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Referenced In The Show:
Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/
The Informationist: https://www.jameslavish.com/
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00:00 Introduction
00:46 A Recession Is Coming
06:07 DAS London Plug
07:25 There's A "Tsunami Of Debt" On The Horizon
12:17 The Debt Problem
26:03 Blockworks Research Ad
26:50 The Debt Spiral
33:36 The Debt Spiral End Game
39:06 Bitcoin
49:16 The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvdyD__G4no
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VIDEO
MARKE
market-crash-unlikely-until-july,-says
Noel Smith, chief investment officer and head of options trading at Convex Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance for a special time-sensitive episode to share an observation from the options markets that he thinks could exert some buying pressure over the next two weeks. Smith notes that, due to a large asset manager putting on a “collar” a while back, options market makers are long lots of gamma at the 3620 level on the S&P 500, and thus will be forced buyers on the way down as they strive to remain delta neutral. This dynamic will only become stronger until the very end of June, and the “fireworks” in the S&P 500 may not start until July.
Not investment advice. Filmed on June 16, 2022.
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Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw
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STOCK
stock-market-flash-crash
With the VIX at a 3-year low, Kris Sidial, tail risk manager & co-chief investment officer of The Ambrus Group, returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack about what it’s like hedging tail risk during a volatility bear market (bull market in risk, bear market in vol).
Sidial sheds light on the spectacular rise of Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options and explains why he thinks their proliferation poses a serious risk to market structure. That being said, Sidial thinks implied volatility could continue to decline for a while. Filmed on June 23, 2023.
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Ambrus’ paper on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options:
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f6299603ceb25330f902e7d/t/644beff4e8d2ee6519d85da2/1682698232481/Ambrus+Capital+-+Dispelling+False+Narratives+About+0DTE+Options.pdf
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Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
__
Timecodes:
00:00 Introduction
00:37 Market Volatility Is At A Three-Year Low
07:55 Implied Volatility Could Go Even Lower
15:35 Tail Risk Strategies
36:22 The Stunning Rise Of Zero Days To Expiration (0DTE) Options
41:50 Huge Amounts Of Unregulated Leverage In 0DTE Options
52:52 Market Crash Is "Inevitable" Because Of Zero Day To Expiration Options
01:04:35 Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk
01:08:12 Performance Reporting of Tail Fund Risk Funds
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrwMhc-UWw0
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VIDEO
JAPAN
japan-finally-breaks-and-takes-global
After hitting new three-decade-highs day after day, Japan's incredible equity market rally finally comes to an end. Notably, Japan's market direction, both to the upside as well as down, has been driving the broader global equity markets directionally in tandem - putting in the top tick on index futures down to the minute.
Weston Nakamura dives into futures markets daily trading data from Japan Exchange and analyzes exactly who was buying, and who was selling, by participant - and finds that despite the downturn in the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices, foreigners remain net buyers of Japan equities. Therefore, it seems that there may still be upside in Japan, and therefore in global equities on the other side of this pullback.
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWWFMbdsySo
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VIDEO
SECRE
secrets-of-small-cap-value-investing-in
Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/
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Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
__
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:57 The Small Cap Value Universe
06:58 Why Did The Value Factor Used To Work, And Why Isn't It Working Now?
11:27 How To Find Great Small Cap Value Stocks
14:45 Finding Asymmetric Opportunities
16:18 VanEck Ad
17:51 Ferroglobe PLC
20:50 ACV Auctions
24:52 I Despise Price / Sales Ratio
27:38 What Makes Some Investments Work, And Others Not Work?
31:17 Look At Managements' Incentives
40:54 Banking Stocks
43:06 Last Time Small Cap Value Stocks Were "All The Rage": Early 2000s
45:17 Has The Rise Of Passive Flows Distorted The Small Cap World?
51:13 Markets Are "Broadly Efficient": Some Value Stocks Are Cheap For A Reason
53:06 How to Avoid "Value Traps"
58:42 How To Generate Short Ideas
01:07:00 The Role of Macro
01:08:37 U.S. Economy Is "Pretty Strong," European Economy Is "In Shambles"
01:10:51 Calumet Specialty Products
01:13:33 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_LLz-qMwY4
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Created
4 weeks ago
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VIDEO
THE L
the-long-term-debt-cycle's-impact-on-the
In this episode of On The Margin, Mike is joined by Darius Dale. Darius is the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm aiming to democratize the access to institutional-grade research, allowing investors to take advantage of changing market narratives using data driven signals. In this episode, Darius shares his thoughts on how investors should prepare for a slowdown in global growth, a rise in secular inflation, navigating both financial volatility and political risk, the fourth turning and the future of the U.S dollar.
Timestamps:
00:00 ・ Introduction
01:33 ・ The reflation trade is over
04:41 ・ Owning growth equities during deflation
07:08 ・ Monetary policy vs Fiscal policy
11:04 ・ Inflation vs Deflation
16:41 ・ Outlook for commodities
18:14 ・ Outlook for the US dollar
27:21 ・ Quantitative easing
33:00 ・ The effect of politics on asset markets
34:58 ・ What is the end game?
38:33 ・How investors can prepare for this environment
44:05 ・ The role of Bitcoin
56:23 ・ Final thoughts from Darius
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With $10 billion in assets under management and custody, it provides one-stop crypto financial services with over $5 billion in average monthly trading volumes. The offerings include Cactus Custody™, spot OTC, fixed income, structured products, lending as well as asset management. Download the Matrixport App now to earn 30% APY on USDC. Learn more at https://onthemargin.link/matrixport
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On The Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like On the Margin, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.
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