New poll shows 68% of WC voters now support a referendum on Cape Independence. CIAG to call for a referendum on election day 2024. A new poll conducted by Victory Research on behalf of the Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG) has found that a clear majority of Western Cape voters now support Cape Independence (58.4%), and more than two-thirds support a referendum (68.0%).
The poll was demographically representative, was conducted between 24July and 14 August, and has a margin for error of 5%. The sample size was 1080. For the first time, support for independence is now highest amongst ‘coloured’ voters (77.5%).
In collaboration with other organisations who support Cape Independence, the CIAG will now call for a referendum to be held on election day 2024 and invite the public to join this call. People who wish to register their support can sign a letter addressed to Premier Winde and President Ramaphosa online by visiting https://www.CapeReferendum.org
CIAG spokesperson Phil Craig says, “Support for Cape Independence has been steadily growing and now more than two-thirds of Western Cape voters want a referendum to be held. Before the 2021 elections DA leader John Steenhuisen personally promised the CIAG a referendum on Cape Independence and publicly told Western Cape voters that, whilst the DA opposed Cape Independence, it was ultimately a decision for voters to make for themselves in a referendum. The DA have since warned voters that doomsday is a likely outcome of the 2024 elections. It is clearly time for the DA to honour its 2021 election promises and to call a referendum on Cape Independence.”
DA Western Cape Premier Alan Winde is empowered by section 127(2)(f) of the Constitution to call a referendum. There is some legal debate about how this right should be enacted because the Referendums Act is outdated. The CIAG’s legal advisors believe Winde’s ability to enact a referendum can be ‘read into’ the Referendums Act. Even if the Premier disputes this interpretation, he can simply ask the President (who is specifically empowered by the Act) to enact his constitutional call so there is no legal reason why Premier Winde cannot calla referendum on Cape Independence.
Craig says, “A Cape Independence referendum on election day would be both pragmatic and principled. The IEC will already have established the election framework and to add an additional referendum question will be relatively simple and cost effective. Thereafter, allowing Western Cape voters the option to avoid any prospect of an ANC government or doomsday after 2024 by giving them a referendum which two-thirds of them want is the epitome of democracy. In such circumstances, were the provincial government which they elected to deny them their democratic voice, it would be an unforgiveable betrayal.”
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Constitution is clear: Alan Winde can call a referendum in WCape
Who gets to call a referendum?
In this case, it is quite evident that the Constitution envisages (and it should be read to envisage) provincial initiative when it comes to provincial referenda.
Section 127(1)(f) of the Constitution provides that a provincial Premier has the power to call ‘a referendum in the province in accordance with national legislation’. The ‘national legislation’ referred to in this context is the Referendums Act of 1983.
The Referendums Act empowers the erstwhile office of the State President to call referenda and sets out how that might be done.
The fact that it does not refer to provincial premiers, however, is of no moment. Why? Because despite some imperfections, South African constitutional law is remarkably coherent.
Section 3(2)(b) of Schedule 6 of the Constitution provides that, ‘Unless inconsistent with the context or clearly inappropriate, a reference in any remaining old order legislation to a State President […] must be construed as a reference to the Premier of a province under the new Constitution, if the administration of that legislation has been allocated or assigned in terms of the previous Constitution or this Schedule to a provincial executive’.
In turn, section 147(1)(f) of ‘the previous Constitution’ – the interim Constitution of 1993 – provides that, ‘The Premier of a province […] shall be competent to exercise and perform the following powers and functions, namely to proclaim referenda and plebiscites in terms of this Constitution or a provincial law.’
In other words, the current Constitution provides unequivocally that a provincial premier may call a referendum in their province in line with national legislation. The national legislation in question, the Referendums Act, is old order legislation that refers to the State President, not to a premier. The Constitution then further provides that if the interim Constitution assigned to premiers the power to call a referendum – which it did – then the Referendums Act’s reference to ‘the State President’ must be read as a reference to ‘the Premier’.
Schedule 6 of the Constitution, furthermore, does not contemplate the courts exclusively when it says how old order legislation ‘must be construed’. This schedule is applicable on everyone who must give effect to constitutional provisions – which in this case includes provincial premiers.
Not to put too fine a point on it, then: section 3(2)(b) of Schedule 6 places a requirement on the Premier of the Western Cape, in the person of Alan Winde, to read the Referendums Act as empowering him and his office to call a provincial referendum.
It would be completely unconstitutional and incongruent with the text of the Constitution and the spirit of subsidiarity, which the Constitutional Court has said underlies the Constitution, to read section 127(1)(f) of the Constitution as meaning provincial subordination to the central government.
Fixing the old Act
Even though Schedule 6 places, in my mind, a clear obligation on the Premier to take the initiative, South Africans tend to have a very unhealthy preoccupation with the courts, to the extent that some believe that unless there is a Constitutional Court judgment on a matter, it cannot amount to law.
This is nonsense, of course, but an aspect of public discourse that must be taken into account.
The Premier of the Western Cape must read the Constitution as allowing him to call a referendum in line with the old Referendums Act. The DA and others’ argument is that Parliament must first fix the old Act and bring its text explicitly in line with what the Constitution provides – an argument I have now rebutted.
(It seems clear to me, as an aside, that the DA prefers this argument not because it is convinced that it is jurisprudentially correct, but because it is worried about what the outcome of a referendum on Cape independence would be, and they know the central Parliament will not fix the old Act any time soon.)
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