Central banks globally have been accumulating gold reserves at a furious pace last seen 55 years ago when the U.S. dollar was still backed by gold. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), central banks bought a record 399 tonnes of gold worth around $20 billion in the third quarter of 2022, with global demand for the precious metal back to pre-health crisis levels.

Retail buyers of gold bars and coins also surged in Turkey to 46.8 tonnes in the quarter, up more than 300% year-on-year.

These developments are hardly surprising taking into account gold is still considered the pre-eminent safe asset in times of uncertainty or turmoil despite the emergence of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. Gold is also regarded as an effective inflation hedge, though experts say that this only rings true only over extended timelines measured in decades or even centuries.

Unfortunately, rising interest rates spoiled the party for the gold bulls, with exchange traded funds (ETFs) storing bullion for investors becoming net sellers. Indeed, offloading of bullion by ETFs countered buying by central banks pushed gold prices down 8% in the third quarter. Gold is a non-interest bearing asset, and investors tend to move their money to higher yielding instruments during times of rising interest rates. An overly strong dollar has also not been helping gold (and commodity) prices. Gold prices are down 9.3% YTD and nearly 20% below their March peak of $2,050 per ounce.

Luckily for the gold bulls, the long-term gold outlook appears to tilt bullish. Markets are currently primed for the fourth 75-basis point hike in a row, after which the Federal Reserve is expected to signal that it could reduce the size of its rate hikes starting as soon as December.

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