Even though the coronavirus pandemic has led to unprecedented Federal Reserve interventions and fiscal relief efforts, Hunt insisted it was mostly a continuation of what he’s seen for years. Essentially, piling on more debt today, not to boost future productivity but just to keep the economy afloat, will lead to decades of slow growth and potential disinflation. For now, the Fed looks invincible to many investors — Hunt would remind them that the central bank’s previous quantitative easing episodes did little to sustainably lift growth or inflation. The policy response this time isn’t all that different, Hunt says. It’s just larger because the downturn is more severe.
➡️ Peter Zeihan, Millennials & Gen Z are the future of the American workforce 2022
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Like their parents, the American Millennial cohort is defined by their size. Making up a larger share of the US population than either the preceding (and dare I say, cooler?) Gen X and younger Gen Z, they are having their own outsized impact on American society.
Millennials and Zoomers are the future of the American workforce, and could not be more different. Where Millennials are touchy-feely, willing to work within teams and have a tendency toward leadership and collaborative work, most Gen Z wants to be left alone.
Think Harry Potter vs the Hunger Games. This will have profound impacts on the evolution of the US labor market, especially as we enter the greatest era of industrialization in American society.
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#Ukraine: Serious Russian losses to Ukrainian AT mines and artillery in the vicinity of Avdiivka, #Donetsk Oblast: 3x BMP-1 IFV, 5x BMP-2 IFV, two ancient T-72 "Ural" tanks, and a T-72B were destroyed/damaged/abandoned.
Russian losses, 24 Feb 2022 to 10 Feb 2023:
~135,740 killed
3,258 tanks
6,471 armoured vehicles
2,251 artillery systems
463 MLRS
233 air defence systems
295 aircraft
286 helicopters
1,970 UAVs
796 cruise missiles
18 ships/boats
5,126 vehicles/fuel trucks
211 special equipment
General David Petraeus Discusses Russia's Recent Staggering Losses: An Insightful Analysis
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Russian oligarchs are business oligarchs of the former Soviet republics who rapidly accumulated wealth in the 1990s via the Russian privatization that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The failing Soviet state left the ownership of state assets contested, which allowed for informal deals with former USSR officials (mostly in Russia and Ukraine) as a means to acquire state property. Historian Edward L. Keenan has compared these oligarchs to the system of powerful boyars that emerged in late-Medieval Muscovy.
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Russian Sanctions & The Oligarchs, Ukraine war, China | Peter Zeihan, China Demographic Collapse Russia,and Geography,the changing order,peter zeihan geopolitics cyber,peter zeihan youtube,peter zeihan webinar,peter zeihan 2022,peter zeihan youtube 2022,peter zeihan canada 2022,oil export peter zeihan,peter zeihan China demographics,peter zeihan china one child,the changing order peter zeihan,changing order,peter zeihan china,peter zeihan,peter zion,Peter zeihan Russia Demographics,and It's Last Stand in Ukraine peter Zeihan
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the most consequential military conflict Europe has witnessed since the Second World War — has riveted the attention of the world. Observers have grappled with the meaning of the act of aggression and scrambled to ponder the wider implications of the war. Almost inevitably people look to draw analogies—both historical and contemporary ones.
One popular contemporary analogy is between Russia’s actions vis-à-vis Ukraine and China’s approach to Taiwan. Beyond some broad-brush parallels — the most obvious parallel being that both Ukraine and Taiwan are peace-loving democracies that are the objects of belligerent irredentism on the part of more militarily powerful and threatening neighboring autocracies — there are also significant differences. Xi Jinping’s China is not Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and Taiwan is not Ukraine.
China Is Not Russia
Russia under Putin has repeatedly dispatched its armed forces for combat missions overseas to a range of countries, including Georgia, Syria and Ukraine, as well as conducted major military interventions against other states, most recently Kazakhstan (albeit at the invitation of that country’s president). Moscow has also actively supported armed groups and militias in some of these same countries and others.
Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
The fact that Ukraine is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was almost certainly a decisive factor in Putin’s calculus to invade Ukraine. Russia’s commander in chief knew that his invading forces would likely not have to contend with the militaries of any other countries. And if there were any lingering doubts in the Kremlin about the disposition of the most powerful member of NATO, U.S. President Joe Biden stated publicly that the United States would not send military forces to help defend Ukraine. Nevertheless, the Biden administration has taken strong steps to reinforce NATO allies in Eastern Europe and provide robust military assistance to Ukraine.
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China Is Not Russia and Taiwan Is Not Ukraine | Peter Zeihan
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Energy at the End of the World Seminar | Part 2 | Peter Zeihan
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Raoul Pal, From Peak British Empire to Today.
CEO & Co-Founder, Real Vision Group & Global Macro Investor
Raoul Pal leads Real Vision to provide unparalleled access to the very best insights and analysis from the brightest financial minds. He prides himself on being a Business Cycle Economist, Investment Strategist, and Economic Historian.
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The U.S. Federal Reserve is in the midst of raising interest rates. By raising the cost of borrowing and making debt (money) more expensive, you control spending thereby controlling inflation.
The United States is currently experiencing the worst inflation crisis in some 40 years. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are the traditional tool in combatting such a problem.
The challenge of inflation is not America's alone. Across Europe and Asia, global currencies are seeing inflation drive up the cost of food, fuel, consumer goods, and housing. Unlike the United States, however, most countries' central banks do not have as direct a course to combat inflation as the Federal Reserve.
A combination of demographic and Russian sanction-related inflationary pressures limit most European nations' abilities to aggressively raise rates. A population as old and quickly aging as Germany or Italy's is unlikely to see a bounce back in consumer spending once rates return to zero--where they have been for over a decade. This is a move the Europeans copied out of Japan's playbook, whose nearly 20 years of near-or-at-zero interest rates are likely to be their foreseeable future.
So what does this mean for bond markets? The U.S. has the demographic strength and economic resilience to keep raising its interest rates, while the rest of the world will be forced to continue issuing bonds at or near zero. Which means their bonds, and ability to borrow, will soon become strongly uncompetitive vis-a-vis the United States.
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Inflation Crisis, Demographics & Russian War in Ukraine | Peter Zeihan
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➡️ Russian Natural Gas, Europe, Ukraine & the Baltics. Peter Zeihan.
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The United States and the United Kingdom have taken the lead in crafting a set of financial sanctions they are threatening to levy against Russia in the case of any aggression. Moscow has said that such a move would result in a cessation of energy supplies to the Europeans--who happen to get about 30% of their oil and natural gas from Russia.
Russia's energy leverage over the EU (and as many other states as it can connect itself to via pipelines) is significant, particularly in terms of natural gas. Global liquefied natural gas production--including the burgeoning US LNG industry--might help alleviate some of these pressures, but not all.
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