Population Growth at All Costs? (Fertility Rate, Population Momentum, Immigration)
According to OECD data, fertility rates have been falling significantly over the last few decades with most developed countries now below replacement levels. People in developed countries are simply not having enough children to replace their populations. There are many reasons for this, but it is largely due to women’s changing roles, employment shifts, and advances in reproductive health. In Korea for example, more women are pursuing wealth and a higher standard of living rather than raising children.
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https://ebay.us/5rluUPAccording to Encyclopedia Britannica, fertility rate is the average number of children born to women during their reproductive years. The single most important factor in population growth is the total fertility rate (TFR). If, on average, women give birth to 2.1 children and these children survive to the age of 15, any given woman will have replaced herself and her partner upon death. A TFR of 2.1 is known as the replacement rate.
Here is a map of global fertility rates as of 2020. Anywhere in dark green or any shade of blue is below replacement levels. These include most nations in Europe, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Russia, China, the United States, and many others. The lowest levels of fertility are found in developed parts of East and Southeast Asia: Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea, with South Korea having the lowest fertility rate in the world at 0.84. That’s less than one child on average per woman.
Both Japan and Korea now have declining populations. As the older generations start to die off, the younger generations are simply not having enough children to replace them. This has resulted in rapidly ageing populations.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics latest release on births in Australia, we have a total fertility rate of 1.58, well below replacement level. For Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, the fertility rate is significantly higher at 2.25, which would ultimately result in population growth in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community if maintained.
Despite this massive decline in fertility rate, why isn’t Australia’s population in decline? Actually, it’s been significantly growing. One reason is population momentum. According to Population Education, one of the most common misconceptions about population growth is that a population stops growing once replacement level fertility is reached (a roughly 2-child average). In fact, due to population momentum, a country’s population can continue growing for another 70 years once replacement level fertility is reached.
So what’s another reason why the population of Australia is still growing? I think many of us would already have guessed by now,
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