#RiskAnalysis #RiskManagement #Economics
Learn how an economist analyzes and manages risk in finance, love, retirement, and life in general in this wide-ranging discussion with first-time author Allison Schrager.
Allison is a Ph.D. economist, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, contributing editor at City Journal, and co-founder of LifeCycle Finance Partners, LLC, a risk advisory firm.
Allison diversified her career by working in finance, policy, and media. She led retirement product innovation at Dimensional Fund Advisors and consulted to international organizations, including the OECD and IMF.
She has been a regular contributor to the Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg Businessweek. Her writing has also appeared in Playboy, Wired, National Review and Foreign Affairs. She has an undergraduate degree from the University of Edinburgh and a PhD in economics from Columbia University. She lives in New York City.
@AllisonSchrager
https://www.allisonschrager.com/
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/expert/allison-schrager
https://www.lcfpartners.com/
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00:00:00 Intro
00:03:40 How did you come up with the title and the cover?
00:11:48 Should you be missing 1 out 10 of your flights? How early should you arrive at the Airport?
00:14:12 What is the origin of the word "risk" and risk analysis?
00:16:18 How do savvy investors go so wrong at underestimating risk?
00:29:33 How is risk apprised in military strategy?
00:31:41 How can risk be taken advantage of?
00:33:11 The risks of academia.
00:41:53 What did you learn about the risks of the contemporary publishing industry?
00:43:39 The risks of marriage and children.
00:46:29 Allison's next book on why we hesitate to take new risks.
00:48:47 Are there changes you would make in your book?
00:50:27 The risks of speculations and investments like Bitcoin.
00:59:22 What would you write in your ethical will?
01:00:51 What would you leave in your billion-year legacy time capsule?
01:01:39 What advice would you give your younger self?
? ? Watch my most popular videos? ?
Frank Wilczek https://youtu.be/3z8RqKMQHe0?sub_confirmation=1
Weinstein and Wolfram https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OI0AZ4Y4Ip4?sub_confirmation=1
Sheldon Glashow: https://youtu.be/a0_iaWgxQtA?sub_confirmation=1
Michael Saylor The Physics of Bitcoin https://youtu.be/CaN_CDKqXOg?sub_confirmation=1
Sir Roger Penrose, Nobel Prize winner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMuqyAvX7Wo?sub_confirmation=1
Jill Tarter https://youtu.be/O9K9OBd3vHk?sub_confirmation=1
Sara Seager Venus LIfe: https://youtu.be/QPsEDoOTU6k?sub_confi
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKBl9UG8WsM
#SETI #Astrobiology #PlanetarySociety
Books mentioned in this episode:
The Eerie Silence: Renewing Our Search for Alien Intelligence by Paul Davies
https://www.amazon.com/dp/054742258X/ref=cm_sw_em_r_mt_dp_U_GWBqEb5FR8FDR
The Demon in the Machine: How Hidden Webs of Information Are Solving the Mystery of Life by Paul Davies
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07YRL1GK6/ref=cm_sw_em_r_mt_dp_U_0XBqEb1DA618E
Starship Century, Edited by Greggory & James Benford
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00EUQKNM0/ref=cm_sw_em_r_mt_dp_U_0YBqEbYJ8RGG6
A technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilization could likely detect life on Earth, if such beings exist. Life on Earth could be detectable in our planet’s atmospheric spectral lines for over a billion years. Most of our atmospheric oxygen is due to life, and can be observed over interstellar distances — across thousands of light-years.
Over this long time, many stars have swept near our solar system and Earth. If extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) on such "nearby” planets did send probes to remotely observe our planet, where in the Solar System should we look to find evidence of their past visitation?
The Moon is the obvious, closest place. Another option would be a newly discovered class of co-orbital objects, an equally logical place to locate for observing Earth. These objects approach Earth very closely every year at distances much closer than any large body besides our Moon. They are an ideal way for ET's to watch our world from a secure natural object that provides resources an ET life form might need: materials, a firm anchor, and concealment. They might likely be robotic probes, like our own Voyager and New Horizons probes, remaining on site after exhausting their energy
supply. Studying the Moon and co-orbitals could be termed "extraterrestrial archeology". For the Moon, we can use the photographic mapping of the Moon’s surface by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Co-orbitals have been little studied by astronomy and not at all by SETI or planetary radar observations.
This discussion describes a strategy of looking for ETI artifacts. It proposes both passive and active observations by optical and radio listening, radar imaging and launching probes. We might even broadcast to them. But what if we find nothing there? That would be a profound result: suggesting that, perhaps, no ET intelligence has yet come to look at Earth, on that other hand, perhaps other civilizations are simply not as curious as we are or are better at concealing their activities than we are.
Such speculation forms the basis of this lively conversation between astrophysicist and associate director of the Arthur C. Clarke Center for Human Imagination, Dr Brian Keating (https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating), Prof. Paul Davies,
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-_Nmci6QpA
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Is there any convincing evidence for the existence of UFOs and life outside of Earth? I had the pleasure of discussing this hot topic with the one and only Julian Dorey. Enjoy this short clip from our interview!
If you liked this clip, check out our full interview on Julian's channel: https://youtu.be/R0G7WUqHwqw?si=nw1n588gsV-yuFyV
Additional resources:
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Into the Impossible with Brian Keating is a podcast dedicated to all those who want to explore the universe within and beyond the known.
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#intotheimpossible #briankeating #juliandorey
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKOfMGeB74k
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The first-ever audiobook from Galileo: Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems: Ptolemaic and Copernican https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un
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Neil Turok https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dt5cFLN65fI
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Eric Weinstein vs. Stephen Wolfram https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OI0AZ4Y4Ip4?sub_confirmation=1
Sir Roger Penrose: https://youtu.be/AMuqyAvX7Wo
Sabine Hossenfelder: https://youtu.be/g00ilS6tBvs
Avi Loeb: https://youtu.be/N9lUceHsLRw
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#universe #podcast #briankeating #intotheimpossible #science #astronomy #cosmology #cosmicmicrowavebackground #intotheimpossible #briankeating
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQlc3VpNfRg
Here’s a link to my Ben Shapiro Interview https://youtu.be/9YC5vjD4Ypg
Join this channel to get access to perks:
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? Watch my most popular videos:?
Neil Turok https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dt5cFLN65fI
Frank Wilczek https://youtu.be/3z8RqKMQHe0?sub_confirmation=1
Eric Weinstein vs. Stephen Wolfram https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OI0AZ4Y4Ip4?sub_confirmation=1
Sir Roger Penrose: https://youtu.be/AMuqyAvX7Wo
Noam Chomsky: https://youtu.be/Iaz6JIxDh6Y?sub_confirmation=1
Sabine Hossenfelder: https://youtu.be/g00ilS6tBvs
Avi Loeb: https://youtu.be/N9lUceHsLRw
Follow me to ask questions of my guests:
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A production of http://imagination.ucsd.edu/
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXKv7krMfzI
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How much muscle can you really build without steroids? How effective are anti-doping programs? And are there steroids you can take without getting caught? In this clip from The Joe Rogan Experience, Joe Rogan and I talk about everything steroids. Tune in!
Join this channel to get access to perks:
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? Watch my most popular videos:
Neil Turok https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dt5cFLN65fI
Frank Wilczek https://youtu.be/3z8RqKMQHe0?sub_confirmation=1
Eric Weinstein vs. Stephen Wolfram https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OI0AZ4Y4Ip4?sub_confirmation=1
Sir Roger Penrose: https://youtu.be/AMuqyAvX7Wo
Sabine Hossenfelder: https://youtu.be/g00ilS6tBvs
Avi Loeb: https://youtu.be/N9lUceHsLRw
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#universe #podcast #briankeating #intotheimpossible #science #astronomy #cosmology #cosmicmicrowavebackground
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrJsbDZlu04
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The James Webb Space Telescope is a monumental step forward in our pursuit of understanding the Universe and its origins. Here today, to answer the most frequently asked questions about the telescope, is the senior project scientist himself, John Cromwell Mather!
John is an astrophysicist and cosmologist of the highest rank. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for his work on the Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite COBE along with his colleague George Smoot. Now, he’s exploring the early Universe via the JWST.
Tune in!
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Key Takeaways:
00:00:00 Intro
00:00:57 James Webb Space Telescope
00:04:00 Why are people so fascinated with space exploration?
00:06:51 Does Webb have the potential to see small rocky planets close to us?
00:09:29 Can Webb rule out or comment on the uniformity of the universe?
00:11:58 Will the TRAPPIST-1 system be viewed by Webb?
00:14:23 Will future projects self-assemble and self-replicate?
00:15:40 Can we look at Europa?
00:20:37 Rapid fire questions
00:24:14 Advice for aspiring students
00:25:08 Outro
—
Additional resources:
➡️ Learn more about John Mather: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2006/mather/biographical/
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Into the Impossible with Brian Keating is a podcast dedicated to all those who want to explore the universe within and beyond the known.
Make sure to subscribe so you never miss an episode!
#intotheimpossible #briankeating #jwst
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8WkZG3_4dY
Was 2020 really the "worst year ever," as some would have us believe? Or are things getting better? Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker has shown that poverty, pollution and other challenges are on the wane and we're doing better now in every one of a host of important metrics compared with 30 years ago. Yet progress isn't inevitable, and it doesn't mean everything gets better for all humans all the time, Pinker says. Instead, progress is problem-solving, and we should look at things like climate change, pandemics, and the threat of war as problems to be solved, not inevitable apocalypses in waiting. "We will never have a perfect world, and it would be dangerous to seek one," he says. "But there's no limit to the betterments we can attain if we continue to apply knowledge to enhance human flourishing."
Topics Discussed:
* How his thinking on liberalism has changed in light of recent events
* Presumably it's still the antidote, but what nuances should we keep in mind
* For example, free speech is sacrosanct, but with today's technology, "lies get halfway around the world before the truth can tie its laces."
* The gatekeepers to the public square are increasingly concentrated.
* Technology/social media exacerbate this issue
* What should we do?
* Advice to young adults
* How to navigate these dynamics
* Career considerations
* His thoughts on capitalism, e.g., Coca Cola, MLB, Delta protesting Georgia; Dr. Seuss;
* What about our current situation reconfirms his views? What has caused a rethink?
* What has he changed his mind about recently?
* What does he believe that nobody else does?
* What is he most hopeful about? Most concerned about?
Get Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress https://amzn.to/3eV6Vs2
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00:00:00 Introduction
00:05:31 Why are educated people so bad at making rational decisions?
00:08:20 Why are intellectuals so polarized and so wrong about other fields?:
00:14:08 Galileo, Feynman and the Dunning-Kruger effect.
00:18:33 In light of the pandemic, are you still optimistic about the future?
00:23:01 What is the for-profit media's role in societal polarization?
00:26:20 How will be judged in the future for some of our habits today?
00:30:23 How can we judge religious practices from many years ago?
00:33:46 Would you prefer many readers now or having a single reader 100 years from now?
00:36:35 What is the most precious commodity to you?
00:40:19 What is your take on solving societal problems by curtailing science? (And how to solve the climate crisis)
00:53:28 What's the best writing advice? What book do you give as a gift?
00:55:14 What’s in your Ethical Wil
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObuLujuthLo
Chiara M. F. Mingarelli is a gravitational-wave astrophysicist, looking to understand how supermassive black holes in the centers of massive galaxies merge, if at all. She does this by predicting their nanohertz gravitational-wave signatures, which will soon be detected by pulsar timing array experiments. With pulsar timing data, She looks for both individual supermassive black holes in binary systems, and for the gravitational-wave background which should be generated by their cosmic merger history.
She an assistant professor at the University of Connecticut, and an associate research scientist at the Center for Computational Astrophysics (CCA) at the Flatiron Institute. Before joining the CCA I was a Marie Curie International Outgoing Fellow at Caltech and at the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy. I completed my PhD in 2014 at the University of Birmingham (UK) with Alberto Vecchio.
PRESS RELEASE:
In data gathered and analyzed over 13 years, the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) has found an intriguing low-frequency signal that may be attributable to gravitational waves.
NANOGrav researchers studying the signals from distant pulsars – small, dense stars that rapidly rotate, emitting beamed radio waves, much like a lighthouse – have used radio telescopes to collect data that may indicate the effects of gravitational waves, as reported recently in The Astrophysical Journal Letters.
NANOGrav has been able to rule out some effects other than gravitational waves, such as interference from the matter in our own solar system or certain errors in the data collection. These newest findings set up direct detection of gravitational waves as the possible next major step for NANOGrav and other members of the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA), a collaboration of researchers using the world’s largest radio telescopes.
“It is incredibly exciting to see such a strong signal emerge from the data,” says Joseph Simon, lead researcher on the paper. “However, because the gravitational-wave signal we are searching for spans the entire duration of our observations, we need to carefully understand our noise. This leaves us in a very interesting place, where we can strongly rule out some known noise sources, but we cannot yet say whether the signal is indeed from gravitational waves. For that, we will need more data.”
Gravitational waves are ripples in space-time caused by the movements of incredibly massive objects, such as black holes orbiting each other or neutron stars colliding. Astronomers cannot observe these waves with a telescope like they do stars and galaxies. Instead, they measure the effects passing gravitational waves have, namely tiny changes to the precise position of objects - including
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDlUgfdEUe8