If a man in the UK reaches the age of 82 then, on average, he can expect to live about another 8 years. So is it reasonable to assume that if a particular man reaches 82 and then contracts a virus from which he dies, he loses 8 years of life? The answer is no, because this is a counterfactual question. To get the correct answer requires a causal model and inference procedure beyond the scope of traditional statistics. Alse see this article on what inspired this video https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2022/01/computing-years-of-lost-life-why.html You can download the model used in the video here: http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~norman/Models/counterfactual_life_expectancy2.cmpx and run it using the free trial version of AgenaRisk https://www.agenarisk.com/agenarisk-free-trial ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSqjZ71GWCY

If we want to evaluate the efficacy of a new treatment such as a drug or vaccine against a particular deadly disease then it is not enough to focus purely on how effective the treatment is at stopping the disease. We also have to consider the trade off between effectiveness and safety - do the risks outweigh the benefits. The simplest and most objective way to do this is to determine whether fewer people who get the treatment die compared to those who don’t get the treatment. In other words we have to compare the all cause mortality of the treated versus the untreated. (error at 2:00- text at top right says "22 of the 1000 dies of other causes"; it should be 26 not 22) ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aZsn8jm7ZE

How can a lower still birth rate in pregnant women who have taken some treatment (such as a vaccine) during pregnancy mean that they are at higher risk of a still birth? It is all about what stage of their pregnancy they get the treatment – there is ‘survivor bias’ in those treated late in pregnancy. I present an analogy of a marathon race based on one suggested by colleague Prof Retsef Levi. Full details: https://www.normanfenton.com/post/the-statistical-illusion-of-better-pregnancy-outcomes-for-vaccinated-women ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hk4PiU9Q5uQ

In this clip from his interview with Tucker Carlson Willie Soon spoke about the failure of lockdowns, masks and vaccines - as described in the paper in which he and I were co-authors. The full interview is here: https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1744777758507504061 The full paper is here https://www.mdpi.com/2628834 My substack article is here: https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/publish/post/140458445 ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8uFNmIvTb4