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18 Feb 2020 04:13:55 UTC
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House Prices Slightly up in Some Capitals, but Overall Economic Forecast Looks Weak (2019-20)
Recent data shows that house prices rose slightly last month, June 2019 in some Australian capital cities. Sydney prices rose 0.1%; Melbourne 0.2%; and Hobart 0.2%. The rest of Australia saw falls, though. Leading the pack, both Darwin and Canberra saw falls of 0.9%; Perth 0.7%; Brisbane 0.6%; and Adelaide 0.5%. Overall, Regional Australia didn’t fare too well, with average falls of 0.4%. This equates to a national house price fall in June of 0.2%.

The Conversation, an Australian not-for-profit media outlet, assembled a forecasting panel of 20 leading economists from 12 universities across six states (something they also did back in January this year). Together, they came up with predictions of Australia’s economic future for the financial year 2019-20.

Regarding home prices, their average prediction shows that Sydney and Melbourne home prices will fall by 2.9 and 2.6% respectively. Housing investment will fall an average of 4.9%.

The Reserve Bank cash rate is expected to fall to an average of 1.00% by December 2019, and slightly lower at an average of 0.9% by June 2020. 10 year government bonds are expected to be at about 1.5% in June 2020.

The risk of recession, that is, the probability of a conventionally-defined recession of two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth by June 2021, is 29% on average, with economist Steve Keen suggesting that there’s a 95% chance of recession by that time.

The Unemployment rate is set to rise slightly to 5.3% by June 2020 (It’s currently 5.2%). Nominal GDP growth is expected to be at 3.1%, and growth in disposable income is expected to be about 1%.

Wages are only expected to grow fairly slowly at 2.2%, well below the Budget forecast of 2.75%. If this prediction is right, it will be the seventh consecutive year in which wage growth has fallen short of the Budget forecast. The Consumer Price Index is expected to be at 1.5%, while underlying inflation is set to be at 1.4%.

When it comes to markets, the panel predict that iron ore will be at around US$95 per tonne, 68.5 US cents per Australian Dollar, and that the S&P/ASX200 will climb by about 2.5%.

Overall, economic growth is predicted to be at around 2.1% for the financial year 2019-20, with China set to have growth of about 6.1%, and the United States 2.6%.

So that’s the state of the Australian economy. It’s a fairly grim outlook showing that the economy is weak and heading downward. The risk of recession is on everyone’s minds, although, it’s not a certainty as yet. House prices are a bit up in the air, depending on who you ask, but certainly, I’ve got no intentions of investing in property anytime soon. Anyway, thanks for watching, and I hope we have better news some time in the near future.

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