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The Bond Market Is Already Broken - Stocks and Housing Are Next | Harley Bassman & Joseph Wang
Today Jack Farley welcomes two financial heavyweights who, in Jack’s view, have predicted and understood this year’s sell-off in bonds more accurately and clearly than anyone else in finance: Harley Bassman, founder of the MOVE Index and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve.
Bassman and Wang agree that it is likely that short-term interest rates are close to peaking, but that long-term bonds remain vulnerable to the triple threats of convexity, illiquidity, and duration.
Wang argues that the illiquidity in the U.K. gilt market might be a harbinger for the other sovereign bond markets around the world (including the U.S. Treasury market), and Bassman shares several parts of fixed-income that he personally finds attractive, such as AA 22-year callable municipal debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Filmed on October 6th, 2022.
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Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex
--
Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://rb.gy/q0eztp
Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter https://rb.gy/8a1rs4
Follow Simplify on Twitter https://rb.gy/pavfzi
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj
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Bassman is the creator of the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF ($PFIX), which, on a total return basis as of October 6th, 2022, is up 80% year-to-date and is up 35% since inception in September 2021. Wang’s writings can be found at https://rb.gy/oocxuz and Bassman’s latest commentary as “The Convexity Maven” can be found here: https://rb.gy/xbibuj.
--
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://rb.gy/uxefzo
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
00:00 Introduction
01:00 Is The Sell-Off In Sovereign Bonds Finally Over?
11:57 Risks in The Stock Market
13:53 When Will Powell Pivot?
18:45 The Housing Market Is Already Broken
20:37 What Will Be The First To Break?
28:08 “Bittrex Ad”
28:42 What Will Be The First To Break?
28:45 How To Hedge Against A Bond Market Sell-Off
34:39 Bullish on High-Rated Long-Term Municipal Bonds
40:31 The Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Market
48:12 If Something Breaks, What Will The Fed Do?
52:33 Questions From The Audience
55:29 Recession Risk and Inverted Yield Curves
59:05 Joseph Wang's Take On What Happened In The U.K. Gilt Market
1:02:38 Will Commercial Banks Lose Money?
1:04:21 Reverse Repo Facility
1:05:07 Titanic: Has The Fed Hit An Iceberg?
1:08:17 How High Will The Fed Hike To?
1:09:31 Outro
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIfx0XDlKMU
Bassman and Wang agree that it is likely that short-term interest rates are close to peaking, but that long-term bonds remain vulnerable to the triple threats of convexity, illiquidity, and duration.
Wang argues that the illiquidity in the U.K. gilt market might be a harbinger for the other sovereign bond markets around the world (including the U.S. Treasury market), and Bassman shares several parts of fixed-income that he personally finds attractive, such as AA 22-year callable municipal debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Filmed on October 6th, 2022.
--
Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex
--
Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://rb.gy/q0eztp
Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter https://rb.gy/8a1rs4
Follow Simplify on Twitter https://rb.gy/pavfzi
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj
--
Bassman is the creator of the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF ($PFIX), which, on a total return basis as of October 6th, 2022, is up 80% year-to-date and is up 35% since inception in September 2021. Wang’s writings can be found at https://rb.gy/oocxuz and Bassman’s latest commentary as “The Convexity Maven” can be found here: https://rb.gy/xbibuj.
--
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://rb.gy/uxefzo
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
00:00 Introduction
01:00 Is The Sell-Off In Sovereign Bonds Finally Over?
11:57 Risks in The Stock Market
13:53 When Will Powell Pivot?
18:45 The Housing Market Is Already Broken
20:37 What Will Be The First To Break?
28:08 “Bittrex Ad”
28:42 What Will Be The First To Break?
28:45 How To Hedge Against A Bond Market Sell-Off
34:39 Bullish on High-Rated Long-Term Municipal Bonds
40:31 The Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Market
48:12 If Something Breaks, What Will The Fed Do?
52:33 Questions From The Audience
55:29 Recession Risk and Inverted Yield Curves
59:05 Joseph Wang's Take On What Happened In The U.K. Gilt Market
1:02:38 Will Commercial Banks Lose Money?
1:04:21 Reverse Repo Facility
1:05:07 Titanic: Has The Fed Hit An Iceberg?
1:08:17 How High Will The Fed Hike To?
1:09:31 Outro
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIfx0XDlKMU
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BoJ Announcement on the Conduct of Fixed-Rate Purchase Operations: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2022/rel220420d.pdf
China’s Population Flatlines With Fewest Births Since 1950: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-17/china-s-population-flatlines-with-fewest-births-since-1950
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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.
Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw
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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Timestamps:
00:00・Introduction
01:13・Darius' 2022 Market Outlook
08:51・6-12 Month Cyclical Outlook
12:39・The Fed's Inflation Fears
16:11・The Four Horseman of Market Risk
20:32・Growth To Value
22:43・BoJ Announces Yield Curve Control
28:26・Fireblocks Ad
29:45・Is The Bond Bull Market Over?
35:50・The Chinese Credit Cycle
39:22・The Rise & Fall of Empire's
43:04・A Polarising World & Shift To De-Globalization
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Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch
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02:00 Economic Growth Is Stalling
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17:36 Timeline of a Recession
24:28 Fall Of The Commodity Complex
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This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance to move your cash into a Treasury Account today.
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
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16:35 What Is The Risk Of A Financial Crisis Right Now?
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42:51 What Is The "Problematic" Collateral Now?
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Empire is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like Empire, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.
Follow me on Twitter @JasonYanowitz and let me know what you thought of the show!
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Referenced In The Show:
Bank of England announces gilt market operation: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/september/bank-of-england-announces-gilt-market-operation
Fed Pivot My A*S: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/jackson-hole#details
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25:28 Final Thoughts
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