Ukraine's strategic objective remains focused on degrading Russia’s military and naval assets in Crimea, with a particular emphasis on disrupting the Kerch bridge connecting the occupied peninsula to the Russian mainland. Despite repeated requests, Germany's long-range Taurus missile system remains unavailable to Ukraine, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled out such assistance, citing a recent intercepted phone call in which high-ranking German military officers discussed potential use of Taurus to destroy the Kerch bridge. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzIoS0lhmbk
Antonio García Martínez is an American New York Times best-selling author and tech entrepreneur. He is a former product manager for Facebook, the CEO-founder of AdGrok, and a former quantitative analyst for Goldman Sachs.
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The Real Situation on The Ground in Ukraine | Antonio Garcia Martinez
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"Japanification" is the process of other countries' economies becoming like that of Japan: flatlined, with little to no growth or inflation and interest rates stuck at zero indefinitely.
/**** $TLT IMPORTANT!
Because of the Monetary Death Spiral process, many countries around the world are undergoing the process of Japanification.
With interest rates now stuck at zero for the long haul and the Fed focused on employment above all else, the US has now completed the process.
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The Collapse of Empires
by Peter Zeihan on September 15, 2022
The success of Ukrainian forces against Russian troops over the last week is forcing a series of reevaluations of Russian capabilities--especially in the places most of us might not yet be thinking about. There's been a lot of focus on whether or not Russian threats have teeth. But what of Russian promises of support?
For a certain swathe of the world, particularly those countries hostile or indifferent to the US-led Order, Russia was about as good or proximate a neighbor as they could hope for. With Russian capabilities under serious scrutiny, countries from Armenia to Belarus to Syria to Mongolia and Moldova are going to see their strategic environments change rapidly.
There is an elephant in the room in many of these scenarios... and that's Turkey. Whatever their current economic headaches, the Turkish state under Erdogan has maintained a constant march toward realizing a populist, Islamist-tinged, pan-Turkic nationalism that has played out in several ways. One of the most recent has been Turkey's arming and not-so-tacit support of Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia. Even with Turkey's erstwhile EU aspirations and current NATO membership, Ankara has been equally at ease in pursuing its own priorities during the bloc's conflict with the Russians over Ukraine.
But perhaps nowhere will see the full unfurling of Turkish geopolitical ambition in the wake of Russian strategic senescence more than Syria. The Alawite regime in Damascus relies (relied?) heavily on its Russian and Iranian backers, and with Moscow out of the way Ankara faces little opposition. Squashing Kurdish ambitions, redrawing borders, setting up a puppet state, coordinating with Israel to counter Iran--all are on the table for a would be neo-Ottoman Turkey without strong pushback from Russia and Iran.
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Live From Montreal, The Collapse of Empires, Russia | Peter Zeihan
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Moscow has begun limiting natural gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria as Russia seeks to increase energy pressure on Europe. Ostensibly these moves are to encourage European buyers of natural gas to pay their bills in rubles. But Russia has a longer-term goal in mind.
Many private players within Germany, Austria and Hungary especially are lobbying their respective governments to allow them to continue doing business with Russia in rubles, hoping to sidestep sanctions.
As the war between Russia and Ukraine escalates, global commodities markets are going through the most upheaval since the 1973 oil embargo on the U.S. But this time the energy crisis is most acute in Europe, which relies more heavily on Russian exports. And the shock isn’t confined to one commodity.
Russia is the second largest commodity producer in the world (behind the U.S.), and the repercussions of its invasion seem to have changed global supply Markets overnight.
This is the biggest upheaval for commodity markets since 1973. But the comparison ends there. Other than this being a Europe centred shock, the other key way this crisis is different from the 1973 oil embargo is that this isn’t just a shock to oil supply. It’s a shock to every single commodity: grains, oil, gas, metals, palladium, titanium, and neon. The list goes on. We have never seen anything like this before. A
nother big difference is that 1973 was a seller-boycott. This is a buyer boycott. Apart from the actual war, you also have an economic war in the sense that you have a decoupling between Russia and the West. The actual physical decoupling – which will be seen in the commodity space – hasn’t even really started yet. We have seen the boycotts but the actual transition to do this is going to be a very painful process and difficult to physically achieve.
In addition to this physical decoupling, the financial decoupling is starting to impact commodity markets, too. There has been a sharp drop in the prices of many emerging market and Russia related assets, leaving investors facing large margin calls. To fund these, they must take profit on the only positions in the black: commodities. This has led to a fall in total interest in the space, as well as a fall in prices – a clear sign of de-risking unconnected to fundamentals. Such profit taking only enhances the volatility now present in commodity markets.
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Is Russia Using German Gas Dependence to Break NATO? | Peter Zeihan George Friedman
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Dr. Jonathan Barth received his PhD in history from George Mason University in 2014. He specializes in the history of money and banking in the early modern period, with corollary interests in early modern politics, empire, culture, and ideas. Barth is currently an Assistant Professor of History at Arizona State University, and associate director of the Political History and Leadership Program in the School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies.
➡️ Eroding Buying Power, a Crash Course | Proffesor Barth
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