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The End of Ukraine | Peter Zeihan on Economy and Geography of Ukraine
#Ukraine #Geography and #Economy
by Peter Zeihan on April 26, 2022
In many ways, Ukraine's geography largely mimics that of the American Midwest: a broad swath of highly productive agricultural land with a largely navigable river running through it.
In the United States, the Mississippi delivers the bounty of the Midwest to the port of New Orleans on the Gulf of Mexico.
In Ukraine, the Dnieper flows to the Black Sea where it empties at the port of Kherson. Kherson should be a familiar name to those of you who have been following Russia's invasion of the Ukraine, given the Russian military's efforts to capture the city. Geography helps give an understanding of its significance.
Ukraine's historic ability to grow surplus crops and deliver them via river to the Black Sea should not be overlooked. The Black Sea, and especially the Turkish Straits, affords Ukraine a considerable advantage over much of Russia: the output of its primary productive geographies enjoys relatively easy access to global ports.
Ukrainian grain--and oilseeds, and coal, and metals, and so on--can in normal times reach international ports and thus link Ukraine to a globalized economy.
Not so for Russia. The Russians' primary river, the Volga, empties into the Caspian Sea which unlike the Black Sea has no access to global maritime trade.
The Volga is also prone to spectacular cycles of freezing, and flooding, and ice damming. Russian economic development largely stalled until the 19th century, when Moscow was able to develop rail networks to the Baltic Sea and Black Sea (also why so much of Russian imperial history focused on securing the Caucuses and Crimea; access to the Black Sea and ports beyond was [and still is] critical for Russia's economic survival).
Ukraine represents the best-situated, most productive piece of Russia's former Soviet empire, and the one that could most easily integrate with the West, and beyond.
Which is why control over Ukraine has been so central to Russian imperial strategy for centuries, and why I fear future Russian military action will focus on destroying Ukraine's critical infrastructure and economy.
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMSch7g-ias
by Peter Zeihan on April 26, 2022
In many ways, Ukraine's geography largely mimics that of the American Midwest: a broad swath of highly productive agricultural land with a largely navigable river running through it.
In the United States, the Mississippi delivers the bounty of the Midwest to the port of New Orleans on the Gulf of Mexico.
In Ukraine, the Dnieper flows to the Black Sea where it empties at the port of Kherson. Kherson should be a familiar name to those of you who have been following Russia's invasion of the Ukraine, given the Russian military's efforts to capture the city. Geography helps give an understanding of its significance.
Ukraine's historic ability to grow surplus crops and deliver them via river to the Black Sea should not be overlooked. The Black Sea, and especially the Turkish Straits, affords Ukraine a considerable advantage over much of Russia: the output of its primary productive geographies enjoys relatively easy access to global ports.
Ukrainian grain--and oilseeds, and coal, and metals, and so on--can in normal times reach international ports and thus link Ukraine to a globalized economy.
Not so for Russia. The Russians' primary river, the Volga, empties into the Caspian Sea which unlike the Black Sea has no access to global maritime trade.
The Volga is also prone to spectacular cycles of freezing, and flooding, and ice damming. Russian economic development largely stalled until the 19th century, when Moscow was able to develop rail networks to the Baltic Sea and Black Sea (also why so much of Russian imperial history focused on securing the Caucuses and Crimea; access to the Black Sea and ports beyond was [and still is] critical for Russia's economic survival).
Ukraine represents the best-situated, most productive piece of Russia's former Soviet empire, and the one that could most easily integrate with the West, and beyond.
Which is why control over Ukraine has been so central to Russian imperial strategy for centuries, and why I fear future Russian military action will focus on destroying Ukraine's critical infrastructure and economy.
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMSch7g-ias
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Life after Trump, Part II: Searching for Truth in a Flood of Freedom
By Peter Zeihan on January 12, 2020
Starting within minutes of the January 6 riots, a variety of tech platforms began blocking posts by President Donald Trump. Within three days nearly all platforms – a list which includes Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Shopify, Spotify, Google, YouTube, Instagram, SnapChat, TikTok, Discord, even Pinterest – had enacted restrictions, in many cases, lifetime bans, on multiple members of Trump's inner circle's communication capabilities and/or product sales. The one exception – Parler – was instead blocked from being offered on the Apple store and purged from Amazon Web Service’s server systems, functionally killing Parler as a company. Parler's site went down January 11. Perhaps for good.
Techworld's stated logic for the bans is pretty straightforward. All publicly declared they had monitored planning for the violence January 6 on their platforms, and so had cooperated with federal law enforcement to counter it. When the violence happened anyway, techworld took another look and saw follow-on plans to deepen and broaden the violence and in many cases, use said platforms to organize and communicate about said violence. In techworld's mind, the bans were the only logical action they could take.
Outrage from those of the hard Right was expectedly fierce, with charges of censorship echoing throughout the media, both traditional and new. It is difficult for me to sympathize, and not simply because of what happened January 6: Within minutes of AWS' announcement, folks on Parler were using the platform to plot attacks on AWS server farms. I'd have shut it down too.
Free speech in the United States is not absolute. There are many carve-outs, but three are relevant when evaluating the aftereffects of the events of January 6.
First, and perhaps least importantly, while you have the right to speak your mind, you do not have the right to be listened to or respected, nor the right to speak on someone else's place or time. The first enables me to utterly ignore most of what Bernie Sanders says (except for its entertainment value), and the second enables techworld to block Trump and folks like him from their platforms. Neither Sanders nor Trump have legal recourse here as neither immunity from my laughter nor platform access are Constitutional rights.
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