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The Global Energy Crisis, Explained | Warren Pies
The world faces an energy crisis that threatens to stop the economic recovery in its tracks.
On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Jack Farley to explain the root causes of soaring prices of oil and natural gas. Pies argues that the world is entering a regime of secular inflation that will have profound implications for investors, such as turning the correlation between stocks and bonds from negative to positive.
Pies shares his views on real assets and explains why he thinks Bitcoin will likely continue to outperform gold at least over the short-term. PIes challenges mainstream narratives about Bitcoin such as the stock-to-flow model as well its being uncorrelated with other risk assets.
Timestamps:
00:00・Introduction
02:05・The Twilight of Negative Stock-To-Bond Correlations
06:08・The End of Secular Disinflation
14:36・Duration, Explained
17:10・The Commodity Supercycle
19:58・The Causes of the Global Energy Crisis
25:12・Fuel Switching in Asia and Europe
29:05・The Oil Futures Curve's Move from Backwardation to Contango
32:08・Investment Opportunities in the Energy Sector
36:15・Will High Energy Prices Cause a Recession?
41:00・Is the Stock Market Overvalued?
45:21・Warren's Macro Outlook
53:30・The Magnitude of Bitcoin ETFs
56:30・ Bitcoin vs. Gold
01:00:25 ・Thoughts on Stock-To-Flow Model and Bitcoin's Correlation to Stocks
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR6Skw7fPjo
On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Jack Farley to explain the root causes of soaring prices of oil and natural gas. Pies argues that the world is entering a regime of secular inflation that will have profound implications for investors, such as turning the correlation between stocks and bonds from negative to positive.
Pies shares his views on real assets and explains why he thinks Bitcoin will likely continue to outperform gold at least over the short-term. PIes challenges mainstream narratives about Bitcoin such as the stock-to-flow model as well its being uncorrelated with other risk assets.
Timestamps:
00:00・Introduction
02:05・The Twilight of Negative Stock-To-Bond Correlations
06:08・The End of Secular Disinflation
14:36・Duration, Explained
17:10・The Commodity Supercycle
19:58・The Causes of the Global Energy Crisis
25:12・Fuel Switching in Asia and Europe
29:05・The Oil Futures Curve's Move from Backwardation to Contango
32:08・Investment Opportunities in the Energy Sector
36:15・Will High Energy Prices Cause a Recession?
41:00・Is the Stock Market Overvalued?
45:21・Warren's Macro Outlook
53:30・The Magnitude of Bitcoin ETFs
56:30・ Bitcoin vs. Gold
01:00:25 ・Thoughts on Stock-To-Flow Model and Bitcoin's Correlation to Stocks
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR6Skw7fPjo
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