Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, joins Jack for a wide-ranging discussion on central banks, derivatives, and market structure. Hari shares his knowledge on everything from interest rate swaps to the demise of FTX, and he argues that short-expiry options are structurally cheaper than options with longer-dated tenors. Lastly, Hari and Jack exchange thoughts on what it means to attain true expertise in a specific market discipline. Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Hari Krishnan’s book, “Market Tremors”: https://rb.gy/4l3yhj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://fgpodcast.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:24 “Dominant Agents" In Finance 04:49 Are Central Banks Really That Powerful? 13:26 The Shadow Banking System 17:28 The Effect Of Interest Rate Changes By Central Banks 19:12 Curve Ad 25:05 Why Are Swap Spreads Negative? 27:16 Crypto Contagion & The Fall of FTX 38:56 Leverage Within Crypto 42:45 Anti-hedging In Bitcoin Miners 44:36 Volatility In 2022 58:08 The Next Phase Of This Bear Market 01:04:27 The Role Of Macro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHN6T1_r2C4

On today's episode of On The Margin, Eric Basmajian Founder of EPB Research joins the show for a discussion on the business cycle slowdown that suggests a "recession is imminent". With Eric's research following leading, cyclical and lagging indicators, he manages to keep a pulse on the current economic environment and its ultimate impact on markets. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Eric: https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ — Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ — Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:37 A Recession Is Imminent 05:37 Housing Is The Business Cycle 13:46 Permissionless II Ad 14:34 Markets Are Stuck In Limbo 24:26 What Will Cause Something To Break? 31:56 Is The Unemployment Rate A Good Barometer Of A Recession? 44:03 Research Ad 44:53 The Fed's Outlook: What Should They Do vs What Will They Do 51:24 Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N76lNTNcEhI

Rory Johnston, oil buff and founder of CommodityContext.com, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is now “cautiously bullish” on the price of oil because of Saudi Arabia’s significant cuts to its production quota. He also shares in details his reading of crack spreads, crude differentials, speculative positioning, and shape of futures curve. Filmed on July 12th, 2023. ____ Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Johnston’s latest Substacks on Commodity Context: https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/120157df-fe5d-45b5-b19a-ed3a8bab88f7 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: 00:21 An "Exhausting" Oil Market 02:59 The Cautious Bull Case For Oil 11:28 OPEC Cuts Can Support Higher Oil Prices 24:20 Has The Chinese Re-Opening Been A Flop? 31:36 Guyana 34:22 Deconstructing The "Capital Discipline" Narrative About Oil Companies 49:13 The Russian Supply Question 54:55 Price Cap 59:02 Differentials Between Different Types Of Crude Oil 01:03:10 The Washout Of The Way-Too-Long Oil Bulls 01:09:02 Futures Curve 01:15:07 Recession Risk ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYeif6myuJI

Amaury Sechet, Lead developer of Bitcoin Cash, joins Charlie Shrem on today’s episode of Untold Stories. Amaury and Charlie discuss BCH development, Bitcoin Cash, Satoshi Roundtable, Bitcoin, The Cyprus Crisis, hash wars, selling out to banks, Satoshis Vision, socioeconomics, The Bitcoin community, decentralization, Bitcoin resiliency, adversarial balance, the scaling debate, Bitcoin SV, splitting communities, block size, Blockstream, Bitcoin security, and losing crypto adoption. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJOQsQdp1Uc