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TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:
Recession 0:00
Consumer Goes Down 0:33
Cash Is Trash 4:38
Russia Stopping Food Exports 10:35
In terms of Michael Burry’s overall thoughts…he did make an interesting point that, throughout a bear market, we’re likely to see quite a few rallies along the way.
“Bounces are the most epic. 12 of the top 20 NASDAQ 1-day rallies happened during the 78% drop from the 200’s top. 9 of the top 20 SP500 1-day rallies happened during the 86% drop from the 1929 top.”
He also goes on to say that ‘The DOW had 10 bear market rallies of MORE THAN 10%…before bottoming down 89% in 2919…”…suggesting that, it’ll take some time before we reach the TRUE BOTTOM…
https://twitter.com/BurryArchive/stat...
Morgan Stanley also tends to agree, saying that: “Generally speaking, we do not see bear markets bottom without panic selling, similar to what was seen in 2001 and 2020…Historically speaking, no bear market has ever bottomed without a VIX reading of 45 or more.”
Although, in terms of reaching a bottom…the WallStreetJournal gave a slightly DIFFERENT variation… saying that, since 1950…”the S&P 500 has sold off at least 15% on 17 occasions….On 11 of those 17 occasions, the stock market managed to bottom out only around the time the Fed shifted toward loosening monetary policy again.”
In this case, JP Morgan believes that “The Fed’s moves “raise the risk of a recession starting this year or early next year… and raises the risk frankly that they’re not going to be able to keep raising rates that long,”…meaning, if inflation comes down, AND our economy starts to fall…there’s a chance they can ease, or even REDUCE RATES…and, when..or, IF that happens..the market might start to recover.
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The Money GPS is the most active, most informative channel in the financial world. Day after day, breaking down the data and making it easy to understand. This channel is not here to help build a portfolio, give stock picks, or financial advice. It's simply data that is generally not found through conventional means.
#money #inflation #investing
Music Provided by Skip Fearless
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In light of recent economic developments, the Federal Reserve is on alert to potentially implement another interest rate hike later this year, possibly in November or December. This consideration comes amidst rising inflation rates, as indicated by the core consumer price index (CPI) increasing 0.3% from July, marking the first surge in the last six months.
During the Kansas City Fed’s conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the persistently high inflation rates and assured that central banks are ready to implement stricter measures if required. Currently, the Federal Open Market Committee has projected a possible rate increase in 2023, following the adjustment in July to a range between 5.25% and 5.5%, which was a 22-year high. Moreover, with escalating energy prices, particularly noted in the surge of West Texas Intermediate oil prices, the central banks remain vigilant regarding the potential implications on inflation expectations and overall economic stability. This dynamic scenario suggests that policy decisions will be data-driven, with a focus on mitigating undue inflationary pressures while maintaining economic stability. #FederalReserve #InterestRateHike #Inflation #Economy
Timestamps:
Inflation Still Too High 0:00
What Comes Next and Why? 7:42
What Can I Do? 11:14
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Southern California’s Hot Warehousing Market Is Cooling Off Vacancy rates for industrial real estate are ticking up in a region that was considered effectively booked up a year ago. Logistics companies are finding something in Southern California they hadn’t seen in several years—empty warehouse space. One of the tightest industrial real-estate markets in the country is showing signs of loosening, industry experts say, as soaring rents, limited empty space and plummeting import volumes drive companies to look elsewhere for warehouses. The warehouse vacancy rate in a logistics-heavy region called the Inland Empire jumped to 3.8% in the second quarter from 1.2% a year earlier, according to real-estate services firm Savills. That is still below the nationwide vacancy rate of 4.8% but a sharp reversal from a yearslong contraction that left one of the country’s busiest warehousing markets effectively full. #inflation #CPI #PPI #china
TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:
Inflation Mixed 0:00
Indicators of Slowdown 8:22
Thrive and Prosper 12:45
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TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:
It’s Happening 0:00
Consumer Tapped Out 0:10
Ray Dalio 2:23
Real Estate Slow 4:09
Buyers Stop Buying 5:57
Apple and Affirm 10:39
Solutions 11:57
WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH LAYOFFS?
Last month in May - there were 15,000 lay offs in the tech space alone. Here are just some examples of that: Peloton has already laid off 2,800 people, Robinhood is cutting 9% of it’s workforce, Coinbase which has lost over 70% of its value this year started to cut back hiring into the foreseeable future. Carvana just laid off 12% which is 2,500 people citing that the car industry is already in a recession: https://news.crunchbase.com/startups/...
CAR MARKET IS ALREADY IN A RECESSION?
Repo cars are already hitting the market from people who couldn't afford to make payments because they got loans during stimulus. This means banks will start to tighten lending requirements, supply will go up, demand will go down, car prices will not be going up forever like they have.
WHAT ABOUT UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS?
On the bright side - new U.S. jobless claims went down last week by 11,000 to 200,000 - which is the lowest amount of layoffs on record and the strongest labor market in decades. We had a 54 year low in March.
WHAT'S HAPPENING TO THE MARKET?
Here are some good news. Between July 1926 and April 2022 - the stock market averaged 9.95% per year. The total stock market return over all those years or “cumulative return” was 885,084%.
If you look at the market as whole throughout 20 year rolling periods - the stock market has always made money. In fact the cumulative returns five years after a 20 percent decline was 69.9 percent.
Over the last 96 years - the stock market went down 15 times where it dropped more than 20% (bear market). The total market loss was 34.8% on average, and it took exactly 264 trading days to decline all the way until the market reached the bottom. The time it took to recover from those losses on average was 567 trading days.
(The only exception to all this was the Great Depression which from Sept. 3, 1929, the market took several years to reach the bottom in June 1932, at which point stocks fell 84 percent and the market did not fully recover until Jan. 2, 1945. So it took 16 years for someone invested in 1929 until 1945 to finally get break even) But in the end - it always worked out - in those 20 year rolling periods.
DO THE TECH LAYOFFS IMPACT THE ECONOMY?
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The Money GPS is the most active, most informative channel in the financial world. Day after day, breaking down the data and making it easy to understand. This channel is not here to help build a portfolio, give stock picks, or financial advice. It's simply data that is generally not found through conventional means.
#money #inflation #investing
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TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:
The Shockwave 0:00
$37 Billion Biggest Loser 0:37
Let’s Dig Deep 6:20
Major Moves 11:30
Russia and Ukraine situation with oil and commodities rising. With inflation going wild, many are still unable to pay their debt. The cost of goods is accelerating faster than their ability to earn. The real estate sector is on red alert. The U.S. consumer is maxed out. They need more stimulus in order to continue this economy. And of course, stocks need their artificial boost as well. The U.S. consumer is maxed out. Consumer sentiment is down heavily. Real estate continues to increase in price right now as we see low interest rates keep this going. There is upward pressure on markets right now globally because of the inflation of the money supply. As a result, we are finding prices of just about everything being higher. Money, cash, debt is coming into the markets at this time finding its way into stocks, bonds, real estate. Social security is running out of money. Pension funds are not keeping up with inflation. Natural gas and crude oil prices are rising as well as all energy and food prices. Commodities are rising higher including oil, crude oil. Some believe there will be inflation while others suggest stagflation, and others suggest deflation. Inflation resulted in food prices rising, electricity, energy prices. Gold and silver prices have gone higher.
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The Money GPS is the most active, most informative channel in the financial world. Day after day, breaking down the data and making it easy to understand. This channel is not here to help build a portfolio, give stock picks, or financial advice. It's simply data that is generally not found through conventional means.
#money #inflation #investing
Music Provided by Skip Fearless
Graphics: https://foundation.app/@Haptic404
https://www.instagram.com/haptic404/
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6werKptpmSY
China’s Growing Appetite for LNG Is a Long-Term Concern for Europe. Europe made it through winter without an energy crisis thanks to a helping hand from China. The Asian country’s restrictive anti-Covid policies constrained economic growth and its appetite for liquefied natural gas, freeing up supply for elsewhere. That assistance could turn into influence as China rushes to secure LNG for the coming years, signing the most long-term purchase agreements of any nation. Firms based in the country account for roughly 15% of all contracts that’ll begin delivering LNG supply through 2027, according to an analysis of BloombergNEF data.
TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:
China vs West 0:00
Reopening 9:08
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Buy GOLD and SILVER from Miles Franklin:
Call 1-888-81-LIBERTY (Tell them The Money GPS sent you)
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The Money GPS is the most active, most informative channel in the financial world. Day after day, breaking down the data and making it easy to understand. This channel is not here to help build a portfolio, give stock picks, or financial advice. It's simply data that is generally not found through conventional means.
#china #naturalgas #recession #financialcrisis #business #jobs #economy #finance #stocks #investing #debt #usa #worldnews #crisis #worldeconomy #moneymindset #fed #electricvehicle
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyFhKmFsf2Q
TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS:
The Tsunami 0:00
CENTRAL BANK ACTION 0:54
MAJOR INFLOWS 6:21
With inflation going wild, many are still unable to pay their debt. The cost of goods is accelerating faster than their ability to earn. The real estate sector is on red alert. The U.S. consumer is maxed out. They need more stimulus in order to continue this economy. And of course, stocks need their artificial boost as well. The U.S. consumer is maxed out. Consumer sentiment is down heavily. Real estate continues to increase in price right now as we see low interest rates keep this going. There is upward pressure on markets right now globally because of the inflation of the money supply. As a result, we are finding prices of just about everything being higher. Money, cash, debt is coming into the markets at this time finding its way into stocks, bonds, real estate. Social security is running out of money. Pension funds are not keeping up with inflation. Natural gas and crude oil prices are rising as well as all energy and food prices. Commodities are rising higher including oil, crude oil. Some believe there will be inflation while others suggest stagflation, and others suggest deflation. Inflation resulted in food prices rising, electricity, energy prices.
? HOW TO MAKE MONEY ON AMAZON - FREE eCOURSE: ?
? http://TheAmazonGPS.com ?
—————————————————————————————————
LOOK THROUGH MY BOOKS! http://books.themoneygps.com
SUPPORT MY WORK: https://www.patreon.com/themoneygps
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—————————————————————————————————
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http://bit.ly/TheMoneyGPSSources2022
—————————————————————————————————
The Money GPS is the most active, most informative channel in the financial world. Day after day, breaking down the data and making it easy to understand. This channel is not here to help build a portfolio, give stock picks, or financial advice. It's simply data that is generally not found through conventional means.
#money #inflation #investing
Music Provided by Skip Fearless
Graphics: https://foundation.app/@Haptic404
https://www.instagram.com/haptic404/
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhewXNMOSXs