Kaliningrad Blockade Could Spark Escalation, Ukraine | All-In Podcast
? https://youtu.be/NRoSyPtij1k ? https://youtu.be/Bg-chPYiQvI Recorded Jun 30 2022 The Kaliningrad region is sandwiched between the two NATO member countries, and it has been Russian territory since the end of World War II in 1945. Its eponymous capital was formerly one of East Germany's main cities before it was captured by then-Soviet Union in April 1945, with the Potsdam Agreement later that year placing it under Soviet administration. The region, which is armed with nuclear-capable missiles, has about one million residents.
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00:04:49 John brennan on Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine
When it comes to conventional warfare, Russian leaders have relied upon the same tactic for centuries: throw people at the problem. Russian territory has poor defensibility--so too do the lands of the countries Russia has between its own borders and most overland invasion routes. The solution? Plug the gaps with bodies. Lots of them.
What foreign forces didn't get mucked up in, well, the mire of the Northern European Plain, usually had to contend with the poor souls Russian leadership was able to place between itself and those forces seeking to invade. The advent of modern warfare has diminished the effectiveness of these tactics, from machine guns to modern artillery and drones, but Russian military leadership has to contend with another wrinkle: the mobility of modern Russian men. Gone are the days when you could corral villagers and locals and send them off to front lines. As we're seeing along all roads out of Russia, those who can run away from mobilization notices are choosing to do so. In the hundreds of thousands--to say nothing of those who are likely avoiding call up notices within Russia itself.
00:00:00 Russia's mobilization Effort devolves into chaos
00:04:49 John brennan on Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine
00:07:18 will Putin go nuclear?
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Russia's mobilization Effort devolves into chaos | Peter Zeihan
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Russia inherently imperialist and expansionist? Russia wasn’t forced to invade Ukraine, but its leaders chose to do so because they want Russia to become a great power. If Russian elites could somehow relinquish their unwinnable competition with the West, they could set their country on a less costly and more promising course.
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How Russian Expansionary Foreign Policy Works | Stephen Kotkin
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Deflation is still the main Threat as we are in the midst of a multigenerational slowdown in long-term economic growth brought on primarily by aging demographics. In addition, massive amounts of debt are complicating the situation as counter parties likely can’t be counted on when things get tough. Technology has a disinflationary impact that is hard for governments to overcome as businesses become more efficient.
Eventually, the cost of the stimulus will exceed the benefits by so much that financial equations will need to be reset. This event or series of events will have a trigger, but it will not be due to some unforeseen black swan event.
Lacy Harris Hunt is an economist and Executive Vice President of Hoisington Investment Management Company. He is Vice-Chairman of HIMCO’s strategic investment policy committee and also Chief Economist for the Wasatch Hoisington Treasury Bond Fund
➡️ Why Deflation is still the main Threat | Dr. LAcy Hunt (Demographics is Key)
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Why is the Dnieper River important to Russia?
Historically, the river was an important barrier, dividing Ukraine into right and left banks. Nowadays, the river is noted for its dams and hydroelectric stations. The Dnieper is an important navigable waterway for the economy of Ukraine and is connected via the Dnieper–Bug Canal to other waterways in Europe.
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Russian president Vladimir Putin has called up some 300,000 Russian troops in a "partial mobilization" to assist Russian forces in Moscow's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have had some recent successes on the battlefield against Russian troops in the roughly 7-month-old conflict. Putin's move reflects a classic Russian tactic (throwing more bodies at a problem), but is as likely a move to refresh troops on the ground as it is in reaction to recent losses.
A decade ago, Alberta's oil sands were the home of the most expensive to produce crude oil on the planet. Not only that, but Canada's mix of intra-provincial competition and weak federal control left the landlocked province with few options to send its oil outside of the US--a country experiencing a rising boom of natural gas and light, sweet shale crude oil.
The outlook for the oil sands was...not good.
Now? Alberta's oil producers have gotten leaner, and while not meaner (they're still Canadians, after all) they have slowly-but-steadily become more efficient and cost effective in terms of production. While certain challenges remain (Alberta cannot change its landlocked geography), Canada's largest oil producing province has suddenly found itself cost competitive with Russian oil, and the world's energy markets are on the cusp of upheaval.
Suddenly the future of Canada's oil sands doesn't seem so bleak after all.
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Peter Zeihan at Fort Benning Maneuver Warfighter Conference. Feb/2022
GENERAL MARK MILLEY: We're witnessing one of the largest shifts in global geostrategic power that the world has witnessed, and it only happens once in a while.
China continues to spend vast amounts of money on its military. The country is building more ships and more planes and nuclear weapons. It is also, says the Pentagon, creating futuristic armaments that will operate in space and in the cyber realm.
➡️ Modernizing Nations for a Changing Order | Peter Zeihan
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China, Taiwan, Pacific, Large scale combat operations, Navy, Cyber attack
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Lyn Alden: Investing Around The Globe
#Investing part of your #portfolio outside of your home country and into #international #stocks is an important part of diversification. #Covid19
It helps you avoid geopolitical risk associated with having all your funds in just one country, minimizes the impact of localized economic bubbles, and allows you to take advantage of areas of growth and value across the world.
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Dr. Lacy Hunt, is Inflation Transitory?
Lacy is an economist and executive vice president of the institutional bond manager Hoisington Investment Management. He also served as senior economist with the Federal Reserve and has had prominent roles in some of the world’s largest banks.
If you want someone to explain how inflation and deflation actually work, Lacy is your guy.
And about that…
Inflation has been in the news a lot this year. Consumer prices have risen at a 5% annual clip, which is the highest it’s been in decades. Certain factors are squeezing prices and keeping inflation elevated:
Loose monetary policy and government support programs are goosing demand.
COVID-19 created a supply bottleneck.
The Fed says the inflation outlook is transitory. “Why,” says Lacy?
You might want to pour yourself a drink for this one.
Lacy Hunt Agrees With the Fed on the Inflation Outlook
Lacy agrees with the Fed’s assessment that inflation will be transitory. But he has a very different take on what happens next.
In the Fed’s playbook, inflation will slip back to the central bank’s preferred rate of about 2%. If it starts to dip below that bogey, they can always tinker with interest rates to get it back there.
But that’s not what Lacy sees. Once the initial post-opening inflation dies down, he sees us slipping into major disinflation or even deflation.
It comes down to debt. We have too much of it, and rather than spur growth, it ends up crowding it out.
Debt Will Damper Any Inflation Efforts
As Lacy wrote in his last quarterly client letter:
The current economic growth and inflation rates of 2021 will be the highest for a very long time to come. The main obstacle to a return to sustained growth in the standard of living, extreme over-indebtedness, was dramatically worsened by the multiple rounds of fiscal stimulus, which has caused the temporary improvement in economic growth and inflation in the second quarter.
The government stimulus created a short-term blip in growth and inflation. But the debt that was used to make it possible will now slow it down. As Lacy continues:
No pathway out of this trap exists as long as the overreliance on debt remains the only tool of monetary and fiscal policy. The situation is no different in Japan and Europe. Thus, while long Treasury yields can increase over the short run, the fundamentals are too weak for yields to stay elevated. More debt does not cure a subpar economy mired in a debt trap. [emphasis mine] Given the above, our view is that the trend in long-term Treasury yields remains downward.
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The Wall Street Crash of 1929, also known as the Great Crash, was a major American stock market crash that occurred in the autumn of 1929. It started in September and ended late in October, when share prices on the New York Stock Exchange collapsed.
It was the most devastating stock market crash in the history of the United States, when taking into consideration the full extent and duration of its aftereffects. The Great Crash is mostly associated with October 24, 1929, called Black Thursday, the day of the largest sell-off of shares in U.S. history, and October 29, 1929, called Black Tuesday, when investors traded some 16 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange in a single day.
The crash, which followed the London Stock Exchange's crash of September, signaled the beginning of the Great Depression.
➡️ Reminiscences of The Great bubble of 1929 Part 1
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