This is the difference between PROJECTIONS and PREDICTIONS. We shouldn't confuse the two, because projections relate to risk management whereas predictions are required for uncertainty management. Applying the wrong strategy results in a car crash. I'm part of three start-ups right now. In two of them, we have successfully switched from projecting to predicting for the short term (1-3 months) and in scenarios that are more news-prone. For longer time frames and for trend analysis and cashflow modelling we are using projections - which are extrapolations on historical data. The distinction between projections and predictions is rarely made by business-strategists, but it's like upgrading to a from a sharp stick to a scalpel. You can be far more precise and make minor corrections. Full podcast episode here: https://www.discernable.io/podcast/episode/226d3247/6-find-your-strength-uncertainty-or-risk ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEwhbKfHwqQ

Dr Cameron Murray is an expert in environmental economics, corruption and property markets. As a Post-Doctoral Research Fellow in the Henry Halloran Trust at the University of Sydney, Cameron’s PHD on the economics of corruption reveals how endemic and emergent it is to the human condition, which explains so much of the Covid-19 response we are seeing around the world today. Most startling about this interview was his game theory experiments testing and demonstrating corrupt behaviour emerging through social pressure and group/tribe dynamics. In conversation we analysed social conformity to lockdowns through the lens of his research findings. I particularly enjoyed exploring the manipulation of groups and how politicians and other leaders take advantage of populations. His book ‘Game of Mates: How Favours Bleed the Nation’ will ‘open your eyes to how Australia really works’. ------------------------------------------ DR CAMERON MURRAY https://twitter.com/DrCameronMurray www.fresheconomicthinking.com https://gameofmates.com/ His appearance on QandA: https://www.abc.net.au/qanda/2021-10-06/13376618 DISCERNABLE The Podcast: http://discernable.io/listen The Crew Mailing List: https://discernable.io/crew The Video Archive: https://www.youtube.com/discernable https://www.discernable.io/ ------------------------------------------ 1:15 What economics really is 5:38 Economics is about human welfare and money is only an indicator 8:40 Politicians are shopping around for advice that matches their agenda 9:20 The Health and Wellbeing Cake 13:55 Overcoming the ‘Let It Rip’ stigma 16:23 Myth Making – facts don’t matter in politics 19:12 Why people follow the mass groupthink we are seeing 23:15 How people justify corruption 30:40 Social pressure doesn’t alter corrupt behaviour 33:00 Breaking down tribal groups of loyalty 34:08 Democracy isn’t what we think it is 36:56 Our anti-corruption strategies are only reinforcing corruption 38:05 How conspiracy theories emerge 39:55 the 4 ingredients of corruption 47:04 How institutions have lasted so long 49:05 The social signalling of mask wearing 52:24 The 4 ingredients of corruption summary 55:26 What is the real-world antidote to corruption? 58:26 What happens to group dynamics when they reach snapping point 59:36 Politicians do what is best for their group 1:05:16 The best way to counter groupthink is to create a counter group 1:08:00 How to create a successful movement 1:08:55 Competition between groups 1:11:18 Real-world examples of groupthink mastery 1:14:55 gameofmates.com – Dr Cameron Murray’s book 1:16:02 House prices booming through Lockdown 1:23:43 Real house prices or hidden inflation? 1:26:50 House prices for future generations ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snIj6AZ7gP0

Keep an eye out for opportunity! In the rubble, in the fields, in the streets and in the home - there's opportunity being birthed everywhere. I know so many people who are switching jobs, careers and even life directions right now. Many are chasing new opportunities that presented themselves in Coronavirus season. Some have been forced to due to redundancy. But ALL have been re-evaluating their work lives and coming to some unique revelations thanks to 2020. Full podcast episode at: https://www.discernable.io/podcast/episode/4c24a4e3/7-businesses-are-born-during-recessions ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmXEY4iuKVo

This 3min time lapse shows the 1 hour and 8 minutes it took for the protest march to walk through Bourke Street Mall in Melbourne, Australia on 27 Nov 2021. There is always conjecture over protest size, so here it is in full for all to see. It was large. You can make your own estimations. ---------------------------------------------- DISCERNABLE Our Private Community: discernable.locals.com The Crew Mailing List: https://discernable.io/crew The Podcast: http://discernable.io/listen The Video Archive: https://www.youtube.com/discernable & https://odysee.com/@discernable ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqG7_3Q51EQ