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Created On
23 Feb 2023 17:38:09 UTC
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Norman Fenton: 45 second summary of my recent career
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video/mp4
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English
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HOW A
how-an-illusion-of-efficacy-can-be-2
(This version fixes an error in original)
In determining the efficacy of a medical intervention (such as a drug or vaccine) to stop a particular disease or virus it is typical to assume that the treatment needs time to work before a person is classified as 'treated'. For example, a person vaccinated against a virus may be classified as 'unvaccinated' until 2 weeks after getting the vaccination. This simple animation with a hypothetical example shows that, with such a classification, a placebo (i.e. no effect) vaccination can be shown to be highly effective.
See also this article for more context https://www.normanfenton.com/post/more-on-the-illusions-of-vaccine-efficacy and note that this applies to observational studies rather than randomized controlled trials
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_EV35N0MZD0
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Warning: Norman has a new shaven head look (required for a surgical procedure)
John Beaudoin has been doing some of the most important, but under-reported data analysis work on both fraud with respect to covid death reporting and also vaccine safety. He managed to get hold of all the death certificates for Massachusetts for a significant time period and not only discovered a lot of fraudulent reporting but also a whole bunch of very serious safety signals relating to the covid vaccines. His evidence needs to be heard much more widely than it has been so far.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAgafdMw-nc
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This is a clip from Norman's interview on the Alexandra Marshall show 5 Feb 2024. Full show is here: https://watch.adh.tv/videos/prof-norman-fenton-rachael-wong-monday-5-february-2023
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The motivation is to evaluate a very serious claim of fraud made in March 2022 about an influential published medical study. The details of the particular study are left until the end and I present a simpler general hypothetical example that captures all the key features of the real case and explains step by step how basic statistics enables us to evaluate the claim of fraud.
For full background see: https://www.normanfenton.com/post/the-curious-perfect-p-value-a-case-study-in-defamation-and-ignorance
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIdDWxyjrkI
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simple-introduction-to-bayesian-networks
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was-obama's-book-ghost-written
On 16 Feb 2024 I had an hour-long conversation with Randy Bock in which we discussed a range of issues relating to the covid years, and in particular the political issues arising from it. The full interview is here: https://www.youtube.com/live/2aagmv-nMkg
In this brief clip from near the end of the video I recount the anecdote of what happened in 2011 when I dared to do a Bayesian analysis to determine the probability that Barak Obama’s autobiography was ghost-written by Weather Underground terrorist Bill Ayers. The full story of that can be found here: https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2011/07/using-bayes-to-prove-obama-did-not.html
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