Realtime Collapse: Projections point to likely Crash of sea ice in Antarctica by 8, 10 or 17 Jan 2024.
Recent melt compared to 2010s decadal avg over past 15 days, eg 50% higher melt, then projected on rest of Melt Season.
On staying clear of assumptions & political agendas
We need to be clear about accuracy & uncertainty. Myself, I’ve thrown most, if not all, assumptions out the window on this. Most everyone you heard about has an agenda, which is why you even heard about them… Or they are being used by people with one.
In this plot assumptions are cut to the bone: I still assume Earth revolves around the Sun, so that Melt Season works much the same way as in the past decade.
So I use the 10-year average of 2010-19 as the basis to project upon. For instance, we now have within the past 2-3 weeks a 10-day period that melted 50% faster than that same 10-day period in the 2010s: What would happen if that currently observed melt intensity lingered at 150% of the 2010s level, for the duration of the Melt Season?
At the same time, however, I add to the Uncertainty Interval, the coloured area in the plot, all of the periods it didn’t melt that fast, which is why you get 2-3 million km² sea ice as the very least dramatic estimate.
Summary: So all I’m doing is to say, OK it’s melting this fast now, what happens if that would last? And I also have a 25-day period graphed, which is much less likely to be as extreme as the 10-day.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5VxVlaASDU
Contains
1. Danger by Minuit Machine
2. Me Telling You This
3. Nasa Jet Propulsion Laboratory animation of the twin GRACE-FO satellites
https://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/resources/40/grace-fo-from-range-observations-to-global-mass-change/
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CeJGgB5kFw
‘Everybody I know is falling apart
Everybody I know wants to die
Wants to find
Wants to find
Wants to find
Wants to find’
Music: Everybody I Know / The Jesus And Mary Chain
September 1 to November 21 University of Hamburg Arctic sea ice concentration plots: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/3.125km/
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYF5gOjWFYI
With 3 out of 3 worst case projections saying record low sea ice minimum in Antarctica, and 3 out of 3 in the Arctic, all we can do is lean back, and watch, as the data comes in.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmiZ3RHodj8
This version is 1.25 times faster, if you want the regular speed video, check out
https://youtu.be/-hQu9Pc3wC4
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hj5WfdEm9Xc
Interesting sea ice news for the Polar Icecaps this 3rd weekend of January!
Artic: 2 of 3 recent projections of worst-case maximums suggest new record low
Antartic: 2 of 3 recent projections of worst-case minimums suggest new record low
I’ve been away for a number of days, and some of you may accuse me of trying to “walk back” or “weasel out” of my prior prediction-based posts, but the truth is of course very different: There was a new year, and that messes up many apps, at least if you didn’t plan or write them for ‘eternity’. I didn’t write mine for eternity. So to carry the graph apps over into the new year, maintenance work was needed, so long story short: There first was a software problem, then the laptop I coded on decided to die on me and is still dead, so enter the hardware problem!
The combination or “intersection” if you will of said problems led to this pause of 18 days in my regular reporting, for which I apologise. Maybe next Christmas my life will be more stable & organised so that I can anticipate and run tests on said apps before the calendar changes over to the new year… Who knows, we’ll see, and some of you will say next year? What effin next year, hehe…
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXuPYDokmv0
Today’s early spring melt season broadcast from Clueless FM highlights and explains the past 365 days of sea ice extent in the Arctic, that is those same 365 days that go into the current value for the Annual Average Extent (Day 1 to 365 added and then divided by 365). Y–axis is ice extent and X is daylight hours.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlKGd8dodus