Uncertain regulatory guidance continues to be a challenge for operators and investors in the blockchain ecosystem. This panel will cover updates from major regulatory bodies, compliant investment frameworks, and what an ‘ICO unwind’ would look like.
In order to get a truly expert assessment on the liquidity picture out of China, Michael Howell from Crossborder Capital joins Weston Nakamura, as they explore Weston’s thesis from the previous episode of Market Depth - China’s immediate term priority is to stop the yuan’s precipitous fall. This has been made evident by the PBOC’s daily yuan fixings stronger, as well as their net liquidity draining that had been occurring over the last several trading days. In addition, Michael incorporates his view on how the Japanese yen is being weaponized to attack the Chinese yuan - a theory that Michael and Weston have been discussing on an ongoing matter.
Weston also discusses another potential working theory on China’s economic weakness as inflationary for the developed economies, contrary to mainstream views.
"What The Sudden Leadership Shakeup At The People's Bank Of China Is Really About"
https://youtu.be/wbqoX7vu86w
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https://twitter.com/crossbordercap
http://www.crossbordercapital.com
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0lu-wKS_kQ
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In September, the Federal Reserve is set to remove even more liquidity from markets by taking its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program to the next level. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and veteran banker Chris Whalen, join Jack to explain how this additional wave of monetary tightening will send shockwaves through markets, particularly the two assets that comprise the Fed’s balance sheet: U.S. Treasuries and agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS).
Joseph argues that the U.S. Treasury will likely enact a “buyback” program of its longer-duration securities in order to dampen QT’s volatility, and Whalen contends that if the Federal Reserve sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (as opposed to merely letting them mature), armageddon will ensue.
Filmed on August 17, 2022.
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Read Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “The Marginal Buyer”: https://fedguy.com/the-marginal-buyer/
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Joseph Wang’s work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/
Chris Whalen’s work can be found here: rcwhalen.com
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
01:32 The Effect of Quantitative Tightening (QT) On Commercial Banks
21:00 Vulnerabilities in The Treasury Market
25:15 The Conundrum in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)
32:30 The Fed's Banking "Stress Test"
43:43 Swelling Reverse Repo Facility
48:22 The Fed's Giant Mortgage Problem
59:53 How Far Will The Fed Go In Hiking Rates?
1:02:03 Why Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Not Going Down During QT?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKqqbjyVEP0
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:07 An Overview Of Currencies
09:19 The U.S. Dollar As A Hedge
20:14 The Bond Market Is Not Safe
25:41 Economic Outlook
29:27 VanEck Ad
30:28
34:02 Central Banks Management Of Currencies
36:23 Emerging Market Currencies
42:12 U.S. Trade Deficit And Fiscal Deficit
45:08 Looking Back At Dollar Bear Market of 2000-2007
49:05 China Is Screwed: Dicker on Chinese Yuan (CNY)
01:00:27 View On Stock Market
01:02:42 Which Are You More Bearish On, The Euro Or The Yen?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqOSjTjLPSY
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/
Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack Farley to argue that asset prices remain well above their fair value, and that the drawdowns investors have seen in 2022 are likely not over. Oakley shares his outlook on inflation, the business cycle, and the Federal Reserve, and he outlines where he is finding value and safety for his investors in this turbulent macro environment.
Filmed on September 6, 2022.
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00:00 Introduction
01:38 Why Stocks Remain Overvalued
11:04 Why A Deep Recession Is Imminent
16:02 Energy
20:52 Fixed Income
28:14 Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation and Interest Rates
32:32 Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve?
41:44 Contrarian View
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJ3IGQLI444
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "A Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish".
This week, the Fed raised rates by 75bp. Many expected the following press conference to be dovish and markets rallied upon anticipation. As soon as Powell spoke, those gains reversed as Powell reiterated “it’s very premature to think about pausing”. Alfonso breaks down the Fed conference, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
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Referenced In The Show:
A Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/from-hawkish-to-more-hawkish#details
Minutes of the Meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee November 1, 2022: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1074
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:07 Powell's Press Conference
06:55 Powell Aims To Regain Credibility
10:19 A Fed Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish!
12:25 Monetary Plumbing: Treasury General Account & Reverse Repo
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMrE0Splag4
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On today’s episode, Julian Brigden Co-Founder of MI2 Partners joins the show to reflect on the current state of markets as financial conditions loosen & markets price in a goldilocks environment, as they deem the Fed's inflation fight over.
We discuss the path ahead for the Fed, the ongoing tug of war between stocks & bonds, the ripple effect of inflation & the structural bear market in the bond market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RC1klW0qMZo
Today’s interview is something unlike any other that’s ever appeared on Forward Guidance. It concerns China, a country that once was the engine of global economic growth, but now is in the middle of its worst recession in over 20 years. Can China’s economy emerge stronger than ever? Let’s just say that today’s guests, Kyle Bass and Nick Glinsman, are not optimistic. Kyle Bass is the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital and Nick Glinsman is the founder of Malmgren Glinsman & Partners.
An important disclaimer: a guest today makes serious allegations that are solely his own opinion. Blockworks does not necessarily agree with these claims, some of which are unverified or unverifiable, and in no way endorses them. As always, nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:06 Kyle Bass’ 2023 Macro Outlook
04:20 Will A Global Recession Curb Energy Prices?
13:10 China's Economy
23:00 The Chinese Communist Party
28:46 Why Won't Beijing Reflate?
43:57 Russia and Putin
48:42 Uranium and the Fed
52:19 Outlook on Bonds in 2023
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTLjgth4cnI
Live from CoinAlts Fund Symposium 2019 in Chicago
Nick Grossman, Partner, USV
Sam McIngvale, CEO, Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC
#CoinAlts2019
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAeWxttTkyg
Does the ongoing turmoil in the banking world constitute a “Minksy moment”? Daniel Neilson, assistant professor of monetary economic at Bard College at Simon’s Rock and author of “Minsky” (2019), argues yes. Neilson explores the potential of contagion within the banking world, and he makes the case that the Federal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) as well as the FDIC backstop might make this banking crisis short-lived. Neilson shares with Jack Farley several in-depth charts on the Fed’s balance sheet that might indicate a turning point and the pair share their views on the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 22, 2023. Filmed the afternoon of March 21, 2023.
Daniel Neilson’s article on Silicon Valley Bank: https://www.soonparted.co/p/silicon-valley-bank
Daniel Neilson’s article on Fed’s BTFP and other refinancing channels: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-ii
Daniel Neilson’s chart pack on the SVB Panic: https://www.soonparted.co/p/svb-iii
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
____
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
____
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
05:08 "This Is A Minksy Moment"
18:04 The Takeover of Credit Suisse
28:30 Permissionless
29:33 The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) vs. The Fed's Discount Window
39:32 Can The Banking Panic Be Stopped In Its Tracks?
43:33 Blockworks Research
44:37 First Republic Bank ($FRC) and Bank Profitability
49:32 The Fed Readies Its Dollar Swap Lines
55:43 The Federal Reserve's New Hiking Path
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNGMkdV-M8I