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ActInf GuestStream 071.1 ~ The empirical status of predictive coding and active inference
"The empirical status of predictive coding and active inference"
Rowan Hodson, Marishka Mehta, Ryan Smith
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0149763423004426
Research on predictive processing models has focused largely on two specific algorithmic theories: Predictive Coding for perception and Active Inference for decision-making. While these interconnected theories possess broad explanatory potential, they have only recently begun to receive direct empirical evaluation. Here, we review recent studies of Predictive Coding and Active Inference with a focus on evaluating the degree to which they are empirically supported. For Predictive Coding, we find that existing empirical evidence offers modest support. However, some positive results can also be explained by alternative feedforward (e.g., feature detection-based) models. For Active Inference, most empirical studies have focused on fitting these models to behavior as a means of identifying and explaining individual or group differences. While Active Inference models tend to explain behavioral data reasonably well, there has not been a focus on testing empirical validity of active inference theory per se, which would require formal comparison to other models (e.g., non-Bayesian or model-free reinforcement learning models). This review suggests that, while promising, a number of specific research directions are still necessary to evaluate the empirical adequacy and explanatory power of these algorithms.
Active Inference Institute information:
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nss0y1P3nso
Rowan Hodson, Marishka Mehta, Ryan Smith
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0149763423004426
Research on predictive processing models has focused largely on two specific algorithmic theories: Predictive Coding for perception and Active Inference for decision-making. While these interconnected theories possess broad explanatory potential, they have only recently begun to receive direct empirical evaluation. Here, we review recent studies of Predictive Coding and Active Inference with a focus on evaluating the degree to which they are empirically supported. For Predictive Coding, we find that existing empirical evidence offers modest support. However, some positive results can also be explained by alternative feedforward (e.g., feature detection-based) models. For Active Inference, most empirical studies have focused on fitting these models to behavior as a means of identifying and explaining individual or group differences. While Active Inference models tend to explain behavioral data reasonably well, there has not been a focus on testing empirical validity of active inference theory per se, which would require formal comparison to other models (e.g., non-Bayesian or model-free reinforcement learning models). This review suggests that, while promising, a number of specific research directions are still necessary to evaluate the empirical adequacy and explanatory power of these algorithms.
Active Inference Institute information:
Website: https://activeinference.org/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/InferenceActive
Discord: https://discord.gg/8VNKNp4jtx
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/ActiveInference/
Active Inference Livestreams: https://coda.io/@active-inference-institute/livestreams
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nss0y1P3nso
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Abstract
Bayesian inference typically focuses upon two issues. The first is estimating the parameters of some model from data, and the second is quantifying the evidence for alternative hypotheses—formulated as alternative models. This paper focuses upon a third issue. Our interest is in the selection of data—either through sampling subsets of data from a large dataset or through optimising experimental design—based upon the models we have of how those data are generated. Optimising data-selection ensures we can achieve good inference with fewer data, saving on computational and experimental costs. This paper aims to unpack the principles of active sampling of data by drawing from neurobiological research on animal exploration and from the theory of optimal experimental design. We offer an overview of the salient points from these fields and illustrate their application in simple toy examples, ranging from function approximation with basis sets to inference about processes that evolve over time. Finally, we consider how this approach to data selection could be applied to the design of (Bayes-adaptive) clinical trials.
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