The planning fallacy makes us underestimate how long it takes to complete our tasks. This video presents two studies showcasing this effect on psychology students. The conclusion is that it is better to use an outside view approach rather than an inside view approach when dealing with planning and completion estimates. ? Subscribe for more animated science videos: https://www.youtube.com/RationalAnimations?sub_confirmation=1 ? Support us on PATREON to receive rewards, exclusive access to content, and help us improve the quantity and quality of our videos: https://www.patreon.com/rationalanimations Playlist with all the animated videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgyX-MnRAuY&list=PL1Nr7ps7wyYo-0AOYd6lfKp-6Czh4p5On Share this video with a friend who may need to know about the planning fallacy: https://youtu.be/GgyX-MnRAuY If you enjoyed this video help others enjoy it by adding captions in your native language: https://support.google.com/youtube/answer/6054623?hl=en&v=XIqJNlV1GpA This video is based on a blog post on LessWrong, by Eliezer Yudkowsky: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CPm5LTwHrvBJCa9h5/planning-fallacy Studies cited: 1. Roger Buehler, Dale Griffin, and Michael Ross, “Exploring the ‘Planning Fallacy’: Why People Underestimate Their Task Completion Times,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 67, no. 3 (1994): 366–381. 2. Ian R. Newby-Clark et al., “People Focus on Optimistic Scenarios and Disregard Pessimistic Scenarios While Predicting Task Completion Times,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 6, no. 3 (2000): 171–182. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgyX-MnRAuY

This time transparent monsters are hidden because we fail to see the full potential of our future. Early humans lived in a horrible state compared to us, and we live in a horrible state if we compare ourselves to a future more advanced humanity. For example, we still die: we haven’t defeated the dragon-tyrant yet. Another way in which future humanity could be better off is if it will have categories of value that we currently can’t imagine. Music that we lack the ears to hear. Such new values might be be unlocked directly or indirectly through new technology. For example, through new sensory organs, or in the same way we already unlocked new forms of experience through writing, new genres of music, new kinds of entertainment, and even mathematics. You can support our work on: ? Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rationalanimations ? Ko-fi: https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Twitter: https://twitter.com/RationalAnimat1 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Share this video with a friend or on Social Media: https://youtu.be/aAQR-_GKaR8 Playlist with all the animated videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgyX-MnRAuY&list=PL1Nr7ps7wyYo-0AOYd6lfKp-6Czh4p5On If you enjoyed this video help others enjoy it by adding captions in your native language: https://support.google.com/youtube/answer/6054623?hl=en&v=XIqJNlV1GpA Bitcoin address: 1FX4iepZfh1yuMNYtvYf2CWL7gha8cakuf Ethereum address: 0xDa8463494Dd233c3aBe59bc42Abc4D50823A5f3F ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Thanks to the narrator of this video, Joshua Belile. You can find him on Twitch: www.twitch.tv/songbox ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ BIG thanks to our patrons: Francisco Lillo Marverati Matthew Brooks Luke Freeman Raphaël Lévy ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAQR-_GKaR8

The 21st century might be the most important century in human history. In the next decades, we might usher in a period of extremely rapid technological and economic growth, upholding a long-run historical trend of super-exponential growth and leading to truly mind-bending technological and economic change in the span of a few decades. This period of transformation holds great promise for humanity, but, at the same time, we might not survive it. Artificial intelligence is the most likely technology to enable this period of extreme growth while posing most of the risk. We’ll explore one candidate approach to artificial general intelligence and its timelines. This video is based on Holden Karnofsky’s “most important century” blog post series: https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/ Below, you can find additional sources and further readings. ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATREON, MEMBERSHIP, KO-FI▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ? Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rationalanimations ? Become a member of the channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgqt1RE0k0MIr0LoyJRy2lg/join ? Ko-fi: https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOCIAL & DISCORD▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Twitter: https://twitter.com/RationalAnimat1 Discord: https://discord.gg/hxWBm6sBNU ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOURCES & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀: Most important: Holden Karnofsky’s “most important century” blog post series: https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/ Ajeya Cotra’s report on AI timelines: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/15ArhEPZSTYU8f012bs6ehPS6-xmhtBPP More sources: Our World in Data, page on population growth: https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth Our World in Data, page on democracy: https://ourworldindata.org/democracy Our World in Data, population of England: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-of-england-millennium Our World in Data, World GDP over the last two millennia: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-gdp-over-the-last-two-millennia?time=1967..2015 Estimates of World GDP, One Million B.C – Present, by J. Bradford De Long: https://delong.typepad.com/print/20061012_LRWGDP.pdf An Essay on the Principle of Population, by Thomas Malthus: https://www.medicina.univr.it/documenti/OccorrenzaIns/matdid/matdid170841.pdf Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990* Micharl Kremer: https://robobees.seas.harvard.edu/files/pegroup/files/kremer1993_2.11.pdf Modeling the Human Trajectory, by David Roodman: https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/modeling-the-human-trajectory/ GDP Growth (annual %), from The World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG 2016 Expert survey on progress in AI: https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/ Robert Miles’ (our narrator) YouTube channel on AGI alignment: https://www.youtube.com/c/RobertMilesAI Trends in the cost of computing, by AI Impacts: https://aiimpacts.org/trends-in-the-cost-of-computing/ Animation at minute 31:50 inspired by the cover of the book "Facing the Intelligence Explosion", by Luke Muehlhasuer: https://www.amazon.com/Facing-Intelligence-Explosion-Luke-Muehlhauser-ebook/dp/B00C7YOR5Q/ref=sr_1_3?crid=1JDT2NEC4KCVC&keywords=Luke+Muehlhauser&qid=1658663037&s=books&sprefix=luke+muehlhauser%2Cstripbooks-intl-ship%2C172&sr=1-3 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀OTHER STUFF▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Share this video with a friend or on Social Media: https://youtu.be/ohHpMeNR3wg Playlist with all the animated videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgyX-MnRAuY&list=PL1Nr7ps7wyYo-0AOYd6lfKp-6Czh4p5On Bitcoin address: 1FX4iepZfh1yuMNYtvYf2CWL7gha8cakuf Ethereum address: 0xDa8463494Dd233c3aBe59bc42Abc4D50823A5f3 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATRONS & MEMBERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Thanks to our patrons and channel members from the Simple Adder tier and above: Bleys Goodson Dawson marverati Matt Parlmer Michael Zimmermann no special person Vincent Söderberg Filip Passeri Scott Alexander Connor Dang Griffith Mark Gongloff Neel Nanda rictic Robin Hanson Ryouta Takehiko Ana Tomasovic Bryan Egan Calvin McCarter Craig Ludington Craig Talbert Dan Wahl Ducky Florian Gabriel Ledung Grisha Levit Jacob Van Buren Jeroen De Dauw joe39504589 John S Klemen Slavic Lars Osborne Logic Luke Freeman Nathan Nathan Fish Nicholas Kees Dupuis Nick Sharp noggieB Oisin Hendrix Raphaël Lévy Roborodger Sephiths Superslowmojoe Tim Duffy Trevyn Case Udo The CEO Lexi X רם רינגל ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CREDITS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Writer: Matthew Barnett Producer: :3 Animator: :3 Narrator: Robert Miles Sound design: Tony Dipiazza ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CHAPTERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Chapters: 0:00 - A Very Unusual Time Period 4:29 - The 21st Century Could Be Much Weirder Than We Imagine 10:08 - The Duplicator 14:55 - The Most Important Invention Ever? 15:53 - When Will Advanced AI Arrive? 20:29 - Ajeya Cotra's Report on AI Timelines 27:54 - What Does This All Ultimately Mean? ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K25VPdbAjU

Sorting Pebbles Into Correct Heaps is a short story published by Eliezer Yudkowsky in the year 2008. It is about... what is it about again? ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATREON, MEMBERSHIP, KO-FI▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ? Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rationalanima... ? Become a member of the channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgqt... ? Ko-fi: https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOCIAL & DISCORD▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Twitter: https://twitter.com/RationalAnimat1 Discord: https://discord.gg/hxWBm6sBNU ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀OTHER STUFF▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Share this video with a friend or on Social Media: https://youtu.be/st9EJg_t6yc Playlist with all the animated videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgyX-... Bitcoin address: 1FX4iepZfh1yuMNYtvYf2CWL7gha8cakuf Ethereum address: 0xDa8463494Dd233c3aBe59bc42Abc4D50823A5f3 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATRONS & MEMBERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Juan Benet Ahmed Elsayyad Chris Painter Jeff McGlynn Jeroen De Dauw Michael McGuffin Bleys Goodson Chad M Jones Craig Falls Dawson Falcon Scientist marverati Matt Parlmer Michael Zimmermann Neal Strobl no special person Serena Thompson Shivanshu Purohit Vincent Söderberg Мikhail Samin Atm Lun Dain Bramage Edward Yu Emmanuel Fredenrich Scott Alexander AGI275 Christian Loomis Dang Griffith DJ Peach Cobbler Hex Ramdass Ivan Bakhtin James Mark Gongloff rictic Ryouta Takehiko Aaron Camacho Alex Hall bparro Bryan Egan Calvin McCarter Craig Ludington Craig Talbert Dan Wahl Danealor Ducky Dylan Mavrides Fermain Gabriel Ledung Grisha Levit Jacob Van Buren joe39504589 John S Klemen Slavic Lex Song Luke Freeman Nathan Nathan Fish Nicholas Kees Dupuis noggieB Roborodger Superslowmojoe Tim Duffy Tomarty Treviisolion Ville Ikäläinen Vincent Weisser Lazy Scholar Torstein Haldorsen Alex G Supreme Reader Michał Zieliński The CEO רם רינגל ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CREDITS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Animation Director: https://twitter.com/vezanmatics/Evan Animation team: - https://twitter.com/celestialshibe / Lara - https://twitter.com/DamonEdgson/ Damon - https://www.instagram.com/earl.gravy / Grey - https://twitter.com/mrgabreleiros / Gabriel - https://www.instagram.com/hannah_luloo / Hannah - https://twitter.com/kstearb / Kristy - https://twitter.com/Nezhahah / Neda - https://www.instagram.com/deewangart / Dee - ?? / :3 Writer: - Eliezer Yudkowsky Producer: - :3 Narrator: Robert Miles VO Editor: Tony Dipiazza Sound design and music: Epic Mountain ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLXQnnVWJGo