On today’s episode of On the Margin, Founder & Managing Director of DeFi Advisors Michael Nicoletos shares the macro forces driving the U.S Dollar higher. As risk mounts, recession warnings loom & investors scramble for safe haven assets, it's no wonder the U.S Dollar finds itself rallying past March 2020 highs. With an expertise in FX markets, Michael shares how the U.S Dollar wrecking ball will impact the global economy, particularly emerging markets, as growth continues to slow and the world scrambles for greenbacks. To hear Michaels take, you’ll have to tune in! -- Follow Michael Nicoletos: https://twitter.com/mnicoletos Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Referenced In The Show: Bretton Woods III. https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/uploads/2022/03/Bretton-Woods-III-Zoltan-Pozsar.pdf -- Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks -- Timestamps: 00:00・Introduction 00:50・Michael's Macro Outlook 06:30・US Dollar Wrecking Ball 10:04・The Russian Ruble 15:00・Fireblocks Ad 16:17・Bretton Woods III 26:13・What's Going On With The Yen? 28:31・Trouble In Emerging Markets 35:28・Is The Fed Behind The Curve? Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify. Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3 Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eK6zy3uLx0

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ So many market participants now regard an inverted yield curve as a harbinger of a recession, due to the indicator’s perfect track record of preceding an economic slowdown. Today, Jack interviews the founder of this economic indicator, Campbell R. Harvey. Harvey shares how he discovered this signal in the bond market in the 1980s, and how it has an 8 out 8 track record in preceding recessions (with zero false signal). An inverted yield curve is when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Harvey’s specific signal on which he wrote his dissertation in 1986 (his thesis advisor was Eugene Fama, Nobel Prize-winning economist) was the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield. It is this indicator which has an 8/8 perfect track record, not the 2s10s (10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield), which as Harvey notes gave a false signal in 1998. Harvey argues that since his 10-year / 3-month signal inverted in the fall of 2022, the first and second quarter of 2024 is when a potential economic slowdown would occur (the average lag between the inversion of the 10-year / 3-month spread is 12 months, but the longest lag is 22 months). However, Harvey notes that there are several positive forces supporting the U.S. economy, such as fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market, as seen by job vacancies in excess of unemployment. While Harvey hopes that these forces can induce a “soft landing,” it is his base case that the 10-year / 3-month inversion will go 9 for 9 in forecasting an economic slowdown. Harvey is Professor of Finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Director of Research and Partner at Research Affiliates, and author of the book “DeFi and the Future of Finance.” Filmed on January 16, 2024. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit https://vaneck.com/ or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Cam Harvey on Twitter https://twitter.com/camharvey?lang=en Cam Harvey on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/camharvey/ Cam Harvey’s website https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ Cam Harvey’s Original 1986 Dissertation on Inverted Yield Curve: https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Thesis/Thesis.pdf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 12:07 Early 2023 Harvey Raised Possibility That "This Might Be A False Signal" 18:39 VanEck Ad 19:18 Inverted Curves Go From Predicting Recessions To... Causing Them? 21:04 The Theoretical Support For Why Inverted Yield Curves Precede Recessions 25:18 The Impact Of Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy On The Yield Curve 30:52 Factors That Support A Soft Landing: Tight Labor Market and Strong Housing Market 36:44 What About The Chance That There Was Already A Recession In 2022? 42:41 Worries About The Banking System And "A Future Credit Squeeze" 46:05 Fed Should Cut Rates Right Now, Since Shelter Inflation Data Is Extremely Lagging 55:04 Closing Thoughts On Yield Curve __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcD3mN8np9E