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2024 Fed Pivot Fueling The Everything Rally | Weekly Roundup
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount. Prices go up in January! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktKFtxFOX1A
Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM
Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX
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Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod
Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko
Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_
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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount. Prices go up in January! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktKFtxFOX1A
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Why has the U.S. dollar exploded higher this year against other currencies, and what does its rise mean for the global economy? Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and outspoken dollar bull, joins Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast, to share his thoughts on what the strength of the greenback indicates about inflation, central banks, and growth rates. Johnson argues that a sovereign debt crisis for China and other emerging markets is within the cards.
Filmed on September 14, 2022, on the second day of the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit.
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On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Trust Me: It Will Be Enough".
After this weeks FOMC meeting, as Powell reiterated his hawkish stance, markets struggled to price in Fed policy. With echoes of Mario Draghi's famous "whatever it takes" speech in July 2012, Powell highlighted to markets that "it will be enough", the Fed will be able to break the back of inflation. So just how will markets reach to Powell's "much tighter, for much longer" stance? To find out, you'll have to tune in!
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Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Referenced In The Show:
Trust Me: It Will Be Enough: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/it-will-be-enough#details
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:30 The Fed Dot Plot
03:55 Powell Is Channelling His Inner Volcker
07:06 Risk Asset's & Equities
08:37 Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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This week, Mark and Mike discuss all things macro as they break down GDP and earning expectations. US GDP just came in above expectations at 2.9%. Is a soft landing possible, or is the economy holding on by a thread? Mark gives his convincing arguments for the latter.
We also take a deep dive into the housing market, corporate earnings, overvalued tech stocks and why all eyes are on Japan. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J17LEn8mgNU
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VIDEO
“IN
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Is a recession imminent? What will the impact be on asset prices - and to what degree would it cause the Federal Reserve to stop tightening monetary policy?
Today Jack welcomes Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research, to answer these very important questions.
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Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch
Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Joseph’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
02:00 Economic Growth Is Stalling
05:00 What Is A Recession?
07:22 The Fed's "Unconditional" Commitment To Fight Inflation
09:20 Odds Of A Soft Landing
17:36 Timeline of a Recession
24:28 Fall Of The Commodity Complex
32:13 Demographics and Inflation
41:45 Bank Lending's Role In Inflation
53:45 Conclusion
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXntT913JF4
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HAS T
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Jack Farley welcomes former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) for a new show devoted to all things central banking. The two analyze the most recent FOMC meeting, after which Fed Chair Powell on January 26, indicated that the strong labor market and high inflation prints were leading the Fed’s FOMC members to contemplate removing monetary accommodation with more speed and vigor than previously anticipated.
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Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/
Joseph Wang’s Twitter: @FedGuy12
Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96
Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
01:22 Hawkish Or Dovish?
18:32 Balance Sheet: Tapering & Quantitative Tightening
26:50 Plumbing of The Treasury Market
30:43 Are Bank Reserves Cash?
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Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX made headlines when they acquired the naming rights to Miami's basketball stadium. We talk about how he got there, including everything from his childhood to his experience juggling arbitrage in Japan.
00:00 ・ Introductions
02:00 ・ What it's like to be Sam Bankman-Fried these days
03:40 ・ Sam at 12 years old vs. Sam today
08:00 ・ Making money to donate money: Donating to the Biden campaign
11:30 ・ how do you track results of a donation?
13:50 ・ Philosophies surrounding giving and philanthropy
17:20 ・ Why are international ETF's messy?
23:13 ・ Sam's arbitrage in Japan
35:07 ・ Naming your company so the banks don't shut you down
36:45 ・ Do market makers add value to the world?
38:58 ・ Why did Sam start an exchange? (FTX)
45:48 ・ The Blockfolio acquisition
52:20 ・ Naming rights to the Miami Heat stadium is cooler than a patch on a jersey
57:04 ・ What's the value of FTX?
1:01:15 ・ What's next for Sam?
1:03:29 ・ RAPID FIRE
1:07:36 ・ JASON ANSWERS
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Empire is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like Empire, visit http://blockworks.co/podcasts.
Follow me on Twitter @JasonYanowitz and let me know what you thought of the show!
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Live from CoinAlts Fund Symposium 2019 in Chicago
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David Byrd, Blockchain Strategy Leader, Assurance, Ernst & Young LLP
#CoinAlts2019
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/
Nick Halaris, President of Metros Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on real estate situation in the U.S. Though the rapid rise in interest rates has rendered many commercial real estate (CRE) deals uneconomic, the fundamentals in multi-family (i.e. apartments) remain strong, notes Halaris, in part due to high levels of immigration. Nonetheless, many new deals are being done at “negative leverage” - that is to say, the cost of debt exceeds the cap rate on the deal and the property’s cash flows are less than the interest expense. Halaris thinks the sell-off in office might be so bad that the asset class might have bottomed out. He remains very bullish on the single-family housing market. Filmed on March 12, 2024.
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Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:47 Overview of Commercial Real Estate
04:24 Multifamily (Apartment Buildings) Have Been Stronger Than Expected
06:49 Immigration As A Tailwind For Housing & Multifamily Demand
08:43 Projects Are Being Cancelled Because Of High Rates
11:09 Interest Rate Shock Has Rendered Many Deals Uneconomic
18:58 Potential Value In Office Sector Of Commercial Real Estate (CRE)?
22:22 Nick's Long-Term Bull Thesis For Real Estate
26:25 VanEck Ad
27:11 CRE's Impact On The U.S. Banking System
29:31 Interestingly, Private Credit Funding Has Not Gotten More Expensive
31:28 Nick Is Flipping A House To Stay Busy (Do Not Do This At Home)
34:12 Housing Bull Market Is Fundamentally Different From 2003-2006... Not Speculative Bubble (I.E. Buying To Flip)
38:18 New York Community Bank (NYCB)
59:03 Final Thoughts On Valuation Difference Between Public and Private Real Estate Markets
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...
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In this video Demetri shares his thoughts on the effect of inflation on the average citizen. Are the Fed really in control or is trust in institutions crumbling? Clip taken from our full length interview with Demetri Kofinas - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzwGD2Vy2uAE
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