In this episode of Mentally Unscripted, Paul and Scott discuss using disconfirming evidence and falsifiability to overcome confirmation bias. Resources: [Confirmation Bias: Why Your Decisions Suck, and You Fight With Your Friends](https://strengthandreason.com/confirmation-bias) [Use Disconfirming Evidence to Make Your Decisions Suck Less](https://strengthandreason.com/disc-evi) Judgment in Managerial Decision Making Probabilistic Thinking Top Takeaways: 1. Humans tend to look only for confirming evidence. But often, we need disconfirming evidence to find the correct solution to a question. 2. Disconfirming evidence is better to use when examining a belief because it uses deductive logic instead of inductive logic. 3. Understanding the risk posed by COVID is complicated by the lack of unfiltered, scientific data that gives a level-headed view of the situation. Timestamps: [0:00] Discussion of Idiocracy – is it fiction or a documentary? [4:42] What is confirming and disconfirming evidence? [7:07] A study demonstrating the value of disconfirming evidence. [10:56] People tend to avoid using disconfirming evidence because it takes more resources than seeking out confirming information. [13:08] Falsifiability, the problem of induction, and deductive reasoning. [18:03] Unfalsifiable claims may still be true. We just can’t falsify them. [21:18] Applying disconfirming evidence and falsifiability to COVID. [21:32] The debate over using masks to protect against COVID’s spread [25:32] One factor complicating an analysis is that people aren’t good at assessing risk. [28:35] Statistics are unreliable because they are difficult to measure and driven by incentives other than public health. [35:05] As a population, we need to ask better questions and be literate in the concept of falsifiability. Catch the full episode at Mentally Unscripted [Ep31 - Disconfirming Evidence and Falsifiability: The Two Most Powerful Mental Tools You’re Not Using]( https:// bit.ly/disconfirm) Follow our hosts on Twitter. [Scott](https://twitter.com/StrengthReason) [Paul](https://twitter.com/ThoughtMachina) Follow Scott at [Strength and Reason](https://strengthandreason.com) For all our episodes, go to [Mentally Unscripted](https://mentallyunscripted.com) Subscribe on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1548381924) [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/4LCJ0RNcSJPet9BnMeHykP) [Google Podcasts](https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS8xNTMyMzgzLnJzcw==) [Amazon](https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/8b4a224e-11e9-4d80-bc02-26fbf1964eb8/Mentally-Unscripted)