'Ale's World of Stocks' made a good point "How is investing in a company with zero revenue and billions of running costs an investment?" Sure Cruise lines like Carnival ($CLL) are valued low on first impression, 60% discount on book value ($10B market value vs $30B book value), a historical low never achieved in it's 40 years of existence, only once went below book value in 2008, and only 20%. BUT, this crises is one of a kind, ZERO revenue for likely a year, means a loss of half a billion per month! They did get $10 Billion loan but at 10% interest, will likely burn a good piece of that money, that need be payed back, this will take years. This kind of crises where the whole fleet is grounded for half a year and likely will take 2 years before back to normal, is a total disaster for a company, and has good chance to wipe out current owners as a default, or another bailout investments down the line diluting shareholders dramatically, is still a high risk, despite having secured a big loan. Also book value is likely not even close to market value anymore as these big cruise ships are likely going for pennies on the dollar today. The industry will recover, but the risk for current stockholders to book more losses is still high in my opinion, so not worth taking the risk. Budget airlines like Ryanair and Wizzair look interesting, but they are not discounted that much yet, 50% or so while their losses are of course staggering too with 90% of planes grounded for 2 months and likely take a year before back to normal, and politicians will likely continue to make their life hard with even more costly regulations to "keep us safe". Budget airlines will continue to grow by taking away market share from the big boys but they also will have to cope with the fact that people are more and more able to avoid flying thanks to innovations like the selfdriving car that seems only couple years away and will make short flights not worthwhile. Work from home also sees fast growth now thanks to the crises, will likely not be dropped fully after the crises, and competes with the most lucrative segment: business flights. Also researched Oil tankers, they make indeed tons of money today, able to charge 10 times as much ($200k instead of $20k per day), to rent out their tankers, valuations of companies like for example $TNK are indeed low, and I do believe it to be correct that little investment has been made in new ships, the fleet is generally old, and therefore supply of ships, even after the crises when demand for oil picks back up, and there is no such high demand anymore for storage of oil, will still see a shortage of ships, keeping shipping rates relatively high. However, oil is likely going to become a shrinking industry as Electrical Vehicles have just sur ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgEEy0Dt5Z8

How long will this bear market last? Last bear market took 1 year to find the low ($160 @ Jan 2015) but the bull market before was shorter as the bull market we just had. Last bull market took 2 years to build up from low ($3 @ Dec 2011) to high ($1150 @ Dec 2013) whereas this bull market took 3 years to go from low ($160 @ Jan 2015) to high ($20k @ Dec 2017). Cycles become longer, 50% longer bull market this time compared to previous, therefore the bear market we just started will likely take also 50% longer than the last one, that means 1.5 year instead of 1 year, before we find the bottom, meaning bear market will last likely till middle 2019. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvyPCTj-6U4

My next buy target to hit was New High in Undervaluation and finally reached after more than a year waiting: 54% undervaluation to trendline ( = 380B) we reached yesterday at $175B or $6600 #Bitcoin. I estimated it had 75% probability to happen and it did ? So my orders got filled, sold some Tesla, and bought some crypto, went from 30% to 44% exposure, rest 56% still $TSLA. Bought mainly $ETH and some $BCH. My largest exposure became #Ethereum at 20% and #BitcoinCash at 18% of total portfolio, not investing in smaller coins yet. Had pledged to go to majority crypto exposure here of 53% but am going to hold on to more Tesla for time being. Important to buy at this stage I believe because next target "Testing Bottom, hitting $4k" I only give 55% probability to happen, that means 45% we do not reach it also. If we do plan to raise exposure to 70% - if - Tesla in meantime also tripled to $900+ so I can say potential, and high overvaluation, was reached and start selling it off. Otherwise will have to go to lower exposure of maybe only 55%. Links: crypto investment plan: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WSeePxcqVyZ__99I-dAcvMBZuEzTq1DX8KzstSKoS5c ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQ9GS4d60Dw

Going a little more in depth why I think bear market for commodities such as Gold and Uranium will likely continue another 10 year but like in 1987-1990 may have a rebound the next few years. However, like then, the rebound did not reach high of 1979, and after rebound found new lows and bottoming out only in 1999. Think odds are highest for a repeat scenario in which case bottom will be reached only by 2030! A risk I do not dare to take. I like to see more indicators that a historical bottom is likely reached. Such as declining production for several years. Historical low valuations real inflation adjusted. For example Uranium is still not cheaper at $20 today than at $10 in 2003 as this is the same price counting 5% real inflation. Also like to see several years of sidelining of the price typical for end of bear market, also not case yet for Uranium (Chart: https://mobile.twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/985120740168040449). Please share this video on your FB or retweet: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/986546311574016000?s=19 ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odyAsj686Dw