South Korea's Yoon urges Korean unification. President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers a resolute message against North Korea's repressive regime on Independence Movement Day, emphasizing the need for a free, unified Korean Peninsula despite recent threats from Kim Jong Un.
He underscores North Korea's heavy reliance on nuclear weapons and the resulting impact on its citizens, positioning unification as a crucial step to extend universal values like freedom and human rights across the Korean Peninsula. The conflicting statements between Yoon and Kim highlight escalating tensions, compounded by challenges such as economic issues and the absence of cultural exchanges.
Yoon criticizes Kim's vow of enmity as "truly deplorable," denouncing its anti-national nature. Shifting focus to Japan, Yoon aims to foster improved relations, sidestepping historical tensions to promote shared values. Additionally, Yoon seeks to strengthen South Korea's alliance with the U.S., forming a robust Seoul-Washington-Tokyo partnership to counter North Korea's threats.
Despite U.S.-led sanctions and dormant cultural exchanges since 2019, North Korea maintains political stability. Yoon's vision for collaboration with Japan emphasizes overcoming historical challenges on Independence Movement Day. Since taking office in 2022, Yoon actively works to enhance South Korea's military alliance with the U.S., reflecting his commitment to address historical disputes and bolster regional partnerships for global peace. In conclusion, Yoon's Independence Movement Day speech encapsulates his unwavering dedication to navigating regional complexities toward a stable Korean Peninsula and fostering global harmony.
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David Rosenberg, The Inflation Scare Doesn't Match Reality.
0:11 Inflation will fade
3:00 Fading the concensus
9:00 Fed Taper
15:40 Classic signs of a bubble
16:00 Next year 2022
22:00 Stagflation
28:00 Crypto and Risk on trade
31:50 Rosenberg research
Economist David Rosenberg suggests hyperinflation warnings are irrational.
The longtime bear, known for his contrarian views, blames rising prices on Covid-19-induced supply side shocks. According to Rosenberg, it’s wrong to assume the impact will cripple the economy and feed into runaway inflation.
“To say that they’re [inflation headwinds] not going to be resolved at some point, I think is actually absolving yourself of being respectful of what history tells you,” said Rosenberg, who served as Merrill Lynch’s chief North American economist from 2002 to 2009.
Rosenberg may be steering clear of the hyperinflation camp, but he’s still worried about the markets and economy. He just sees a different kind of problem facing the U.S. economy: deflation.
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Garry Kasparov - War in Europe - Nordic Business Forum 2022
21,104 views Sep 22, 2022 In his surprise keynote at Nordic Business Forum 2022, the chess grandmaster and political activist Garry Kasparov explains why the Russian invasion of Ukraine was predictable and why a Ukrainian victory in this conflict is crucial for the world.
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The Signs of a coming War in Europe | Garry Kasparov
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Peter's Update on Russia's Demographics
Demographics is one of the cornerstones of how we understand the world here at Zeihan on Geopolitics. Few countries have had as difficult a series of demographic challenges as the Russians.
Beginning with World War I, the Russians faced serious demographic headwinds. The Soviet famine between the mass casualty events of the two World Wars did the population few favors. The move toward urbanization and the packing in of Russian families into state-built tenement multifamily housing pushed birthrates down. As did the economic downtown of the late Soviet era.
Russia's population is unlikely to grow again in any significant manner. They're not alone here; South Korea, Japan, most of Europe have terminal demographies. But Russia also faces a mix of relatively low life expectancy leading to a caving out of expertise and the general Russian "brain trust."
We see this everywhere. In Russian industry and innovation. In their crumbling infrastructure. And most important, in their government and military. There is not an emergent cadre of young leaders ready to step up to the plate. The last time Russia could boast a bunch of starry (or hammer-and-cycle-eyed) youths with big plans for the future? The late 70s and 1980s. Putin's generation. And after decades of intimidating or eliminating and arresting rivals, there are precious Russians left who have meaningful statecraft experience that were not brought up in the Soviet Era.
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➡️ Russia Demographics and It's Last Stand in Ukraine | Peter Zeihan
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The big and small cycles
"Get smarter about what matters on cycles and how to make use of it." In this webinar series, FSC board members will present some of their work on cycles and the use of FSC related services.
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At the outset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was significant concern that China would follow with its own invasion of Taiwan. With both Moscow and Beijing moving to secure what they consider breakaway states within days of each other, the United States--months away from its own messy pull out of Afghanistan--would be too caught in a lurch to react to either.
That obviously didn't happen.
It's not that China is not always considering how it can bring Taiwan back into the mainland's fold. It's just a question of what the scope of an invasion would look like, and what sort of consequences the Chinese will be brought to bear. The arithmetic and planning for both have changed sharply in recent months.
If anything, Russia's bungled invasion of Ukraine showed the Chinese that there's no quick or easy way to overwhelm a fortified and prepared neighboring state. Consider the fact that the Ukrainians have only really existed as a unified, functional post-Soviet country since the Russian's first invasion of the Donbas in 2014. Taiwan has been preparing for a potential Chinese invasion for over six decades.
There's also the obvious fact that Taiwan is an island. The Russians attempted to slow-roll a land based invasion from Russia and Belarus into Ukraine. China is going to have to move armor, soldiers, supply chains, etc across the Taiwan Strait or by air. En masse. This is something incredibly difficult and costly to do even for the best equipped air forces and navies. China's remain largely untested.
And then there is the threat of international reaction. China's proximity to the world's most concentrated production hub of high-end semiconductors seems like effective leverage. And to some extent, it is. But China's workers lack the skillset to design and build the high-end chips Taiwan is known for. And most of the R&D happens in the United States. While Taiwan's plants would most likely shutter, one should keep in mind that much of China's most valuable exports--high end electronics, smart phones, etc.--are reliant on these very same chips.
Which brings us to global consequences. The world is not going to take lightly to the Chinese upending the chip supply chain. Nor can China expect to avoid crippling economic consequences. Consider that outside of energy and extracted resources, Russia has not spent most of its post-Cold War life integrating too heavily into the global economy. China is the complete opposite. Whatever difficulties Moscow is facing with Western economic sanctions, China's pain would undoubtedly be orders of magnitude worse.
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How difficult would it be for China to invade Taiwan? | Peter Zeihan
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Natural geopolitical risks are omnipresent and nearly unpredictable. They can lead to catastrophic effects on the supply chain should a link in the chain be broken. To limit risk, companies of international renown must think global while also doing their utmost to work close to home while following the codes of local culture.
Russia Demography https://youtu.be/k3yPQZWAVEg
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00:00:00 Ukrainians strike back
00:01:40 Sanctions
00:03:00 Energy Fertilizer & Food
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➡️ Geopolitical Impacts On Distribution, Ukraine, Sanctions| Peter Zeihan
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