In the realm of law enforcement, the “police hunch” has long been a mysterious but crucial aspect of decision-making. Drawing on the developing framework of Active Inference from cognitive science, this theoretical article examines the genesis, mechanics, and implications of the police hunch. It argues that hunches – often vital in high-stakes situations – should not be described as mere intuitions, but as intricate products of our mind’s generative models. These models, shaped by observations of the social world and assimilated and enacted through active inference, seek to reduce surprise and make hunches an indispensable tool for officers, in exactly the same way that hypotheses are indispensable for scientists. However, the predictive validity of hunches is influenced by a range of factors, including experience and bias, thus warranting critical examination of their reliability. This article not only explores the formation of police hunches but also provides practical insights for officers and researchers on how to harness the power of active inference to fully understand policing decisions and subsequently explore new avenues for future research.
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Active Inference: The Free Energy Principle in Mind, Brain, and Behavior
By Thomas Parr, Giovanni Pezzulo and Karl J. Friston
https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262045353/active-inference/ https://www.activeinference.org/
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceHICB7bm_c
"Towards Tractable Insights: Dynamics and Immersion in, out and between MathArt"
Shanna Dobson, Dean Tickles, Stephen Sillett
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQKjFV-pCXQ
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Link to the full conversation: https://chat.openai.com/share/5b6ae71f-4f5b-41b7-b066-960c58d3618b
https://www.activeinference.org/
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRhEbr4bpB0
Reward is Not Necessary: A Compositional Theory of Self-Preserving Agents with Empowerment Gain Maximization (2022)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.10851
Thomas J. Ringstrom
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fh1e4sKh3Vs
All Active Inference Institute livestreams and videos:
https://coda.io/@active-inference-institute/livestreams
Full Textbook Group Cohort 4 playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLNm0u2n1Iwdpm1wcq9DOGSdKDDvnEt_xG
Active Inference: The Free Energy Principle in Mind, Brain, and Behavior
By Thomas Parr, Giovanni Pezzulo and Karl J. Friston
https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262045353/active-inference/ https://www.activeinference.org/
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKyPg32Lq9A
First participatory group discussion on the paper.
“Enactive-Dynamic Social Cognition and Active Inference”
http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/20352/
“Active Inference and Abduction”
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12304-021-09432-0
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Active Inference Livestreams: https://coda.io/@active-inference-institute/livestreams
Email: ActiveInference@gmail.com
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yYFJnf_mHY