The Massive Bond Short | “Recession Denier” Jonny Matthews (ex-Brevan Howard) On The Duration Bubble, Correlation Trades, and Variance Swaps Jonny Matthews, founder of Super Macro and former portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and managing director at Citi & Saloman Brothers, joins Forward Guidance to share his view on markets and the economy. Having netted a near 100% return in 2022 with a very large short in Treasury bonds, Matthews has been a proud “recession denier” for several years. While he is now concerned with some worrisome data in the U.S., Matthews continues to believe that an imminent recession in the U.S. is unlikely. Matthews and Farley also discuss the dangers of correlation trades, the challenges of currency trading, the severe slowdown in Europe, and the perils of variance swaps in 2008 and Long-Term Capital Management. Filmed on November 2, 2023. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Jonny Matthews on Twitter https://twitter.com/super_macro Super Macro: https://t.co/jfb5Vw982B Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:34 Jonny's Massive Trade Shorting Bonds 07:18 Analyzing Bond Demand Is Too Hard: Jonny Prefers To Track The Economy 11:47 Concerning Changes In Recent Economic Data 17:29 Pushing Back Against Jonny's "Recession Denier" Thesis 21:13 Manufacturing Can Enter Recession While Overall Economy Is Not In Recession 22:53 Excess Savings Indicate American Consumer Still Flush With Cash 26:59 Jonny's Macro Trades As Of November 2023 29:41 Real Rates Are Unlikely To Go Much Higher 31:55 Curve Will Likely Re-Steepen When Fed Cuts Rates 39:39 Economy in Europe Is "Much Much Weaker" 41:33 Views On The Dollar & The Euro 42:55 Bank of England & Inflation In the U.K. 47:47 View On British Stocks 50:16 China & Japan 01:00:22 Trading Volatility Is Different Than Trading The Underlying Asset 01:03:08 The Danger of Correlations Trades: Ghosts of 2008 01:05:40 Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) Blow-up 01:07:33 Banks Have Changed Dramatically After The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) 01:09:09 Variance Swaps Are Now Capped, Whereas Before 2008 They Were Uncapped 01:13:50 Sector Views 01:15:04 Correlations Change 01:17:12 About Super Macro 01:19:33 Jonny's Bond Short In 2022 Was Truly Colossal In Size ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Orqj5OQg_7A